On 15 Aug 2002 at 1:18, Hermit wrote:
>
> After Saddam is defeated
>
> The impending war against Iraq will be a disaster. The world oil price
> will rise and financial markets will remain wobbly. The backlash
> against the United States and its allies will be huge, perhaps
> toppling the pro-Western monarchies in the Gulf and the pro-Western
> governments in other Middle Eastern countries. Air strikes alone will
> not remove Saddam Hussein from power; US troops will have to become
> engaged on the ground. And, when they do, many American lives will be
> lost, Saddam Hussein may disappear, never to be found (like Osama bin
> Laden in Afghanistan), and US forces will remain on the ground in Iraq
> for years to come, even if they march to Baghdad. [Jane's Intelligence
> Digest - 13 August 2002]
>
As far as many US lives being lost, it may indeed be a sad necessity,
but it was not the case in the Gulf war, nor has it been the case in the
Afghanistan incursion (despite hermit's wild prognostications at the
time). So far, 16 US troops have been lost in enemy conflict in
Afgnanistan, and when added to the US losses in the Gulf war, the total
is still well under 100.
>
> Hamas will continue attacks
>
> The latest move by Palestinian Authority (PA) leader Yasser Arafat to
> impose his authority on all the armed groups involved in attacks on
> Israelis, including the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) and
> Islamic Jihad, appears to have ended in failure. Was this Arafat's
> last chance to stake his claim to the leadership of the wider
> Palestinian community? [Jane's Intelligence Digest - 12 August 2002]
>
I suspected as much; his choices are to collude with the terrorists or to
be ignored. I suspect that he is taking what he considers to be a middle
path in order to maintain his position: publicly condemn, privately
collude. This is, of course, not acceptable, and renders Arafat
unacceptable as well as a negotiator who could guarantee Palestinian
compliance in any Mideast settlement.
>
> Back to the Balkans
>
> While the attention of the international community has been focused on
> the continuing crisis in the Middle East, the increasingly tense
> situation in the southern Balkans has received far less attention,
> despite the risk of renewed inter-ethnic conflict on the borders of
> the European Union and the threat to various multi-national
> peace-keeping missions. This JID report highlights the potential
> flashpoints. [Jane's Intelligence Digest - 12 August 2002]
>
Yep; we have to keep our eyes focused down there. Until Karadzic and
Mladic are apprehended, the possibilities for further trouble remain.
>
> Democracy in Pakistan
>
> HAVING elected himself as president for five years in a referendum on
> April 30, General Pervez Musharraf, Pakistan's military ruler, is now
> busily preparing for a general election on October 10 in which he has
> appointed himself as judge, jury and umpire. Musharraf boasts that
> under his tutelage "Pakistan already has democracy, all we need is a
> label". He presumably believes the election will give him the
> legitimacy he needs if only to deepen the relations between Pakistan
> and the US. Will Musharraf succeed? [Jane's Foreign Report - first
> posted to www.foreignreport.com - 13 August 2002]
>
I think that he will. The majority of Pakistanis are not fundamentalist,
deeply resent the troubles that the radicals have brought to their region,
and will support Musharraf's continuing efforts to rein them in.
>
> Peace in Iraq
>
> Kurdish demands for autonomy and Shiite Muslim resistance to the
> central government. One defense official told the Washington Post: "I
> think it is almost a certainty that we'd wind up doing a campaign
> against the Kurds and Shiites." Wouldn't that be pretty? [Washington
> Post 12 August 2002]
>
Actually, I think that it is more likely that we would be amenable to the
Kurds forming their own homeland in northern Iraq, and an Iran-friendly
Shiite nation being born in the south. The center would remain Sunni.
After all, it's not like the entire thing is a single ancient nation; it was
formed awkwardly, by western powers, early this century.
> ----
> This message was posted by Hermit to the Virus 2002 board on Church of
> Virus BBS.
> <http://virus.lucifer.com/bbs/index.php?board=51;action=display;thread
> id=26106>
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