After Saddam is defeated
The impending war against Iraq will be a disaster. The world oil price will rise and financial markets will remain wobbly. The backlash against the United States and its allies will be huge, perhaps toppling the pro-Western monarchies in the Gulf and the pro-Western governments in other Middle Eastern countries. Air strikes alone will not remove Saddam Hussein from power; US troops will have to become engaged on the ground. And, when they do, many American lives will be lost, Saddam Hussein may disappear, never to be found (like Osama bin Laden in Afghanistan), and US forces will remain on the ground in Iraq for years to come, even if they march to Baghdad.
[Jane's Intelligence Digest - 13 August 2002]
Hamas will continue attacks
The latest move by Palestinian Authority (PA) leader Yasser Arafat to impose his authority on all the armed groups involved in attacks on Israelis, including the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) and Islamic Jihad, appears to have ended in failure. Was this Arafat's last chance to stake his claim to the leadership of the wider Palestinian community?
[Jane's Intelligence Digest - 12 August 2002]
Back to the Balkans
While the attention of the international community has been focused on the continuing crisis in the Middle East, the increasingly tense situation in the southern Balkans has received far less attention, despite the risk of renewed inter-ethnic conflict on the borders of the European Union and the threat to various multi-national peace-keeping missions. This JID report highlights the potential flashpoints.
[Jane's Intelligence Digest - 12 August 2002]
Democracy in Pakistan
HAVING elected himself as president for five years in a referendum on April 30, General Pervez Musharraf, Pakistan's military ruler, is now busily preparing for a general election on October 10 in which he has appointed himself as judge, jury and umpire. Musharraf boasts that under his tutelage "Pakistan already has democracy, all we need is a label". He presumably believes the election will give him the legitimacy he needs if only to deepen the relations between Pakistan and the US. Will Musharraf succeed?
[Jane's Foreign Report - first posted to www.foreignreport.com - 13 August 2002]
Peace in Iraq
Kurdish demands for autonomy and Shiite Muslim resistance to the central government. One defense official told the Washington Post: "I think it is almost a certainty that we'd wind up doing a campaign against the Kurds and Shiites." Wouldn't that be pretty? [Washington Post 12 August 2002]
---- This message was posted by Hermit to the Virus 2002 board on Church of Virus BBS. <http://virus.lucifer.com/bbs/index.php?board=51;action=display;threadid=26106>
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