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Topic: The Baltic Dry Shipping Index (BDI) (Read 479 times) |
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Walter Watts
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The Baltic Dry Shipping Index (BDI)
« on: 2008-06-13 17:24:22 » |
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The Baltic Dry Shipping Index (BDI) is the key gauge of shipping rates for the world's busiest 24 key shipping routes.
Last Thursday, the BDI fell the most it has since 1989 plummeting 384 points (4.6%) to 7,949. (single day change). The BDI is now 28% lower than its Nov. 13 2007 record peak of 11,039.
The potential of a U.S. recession is starting to spread to other countries, all chatter of "decoupling" and "containment" notwithstanding. If this is foreshadowing a broader global decline, we should expect commodity prices to suffer as well.
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/01/baltic-dry-ship.html
Interesting econometric datapoint.....
Walter
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Walter Watts
Tulsa Network Solutions, Inc.
No one gets to see the Wizard! Not nobody! Not no how!
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Hermit
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Re:The Baltic Dry Shipping Index (BDI)
« Reply #1 on: 2008-06-14 13:36:08 » |
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Thanks for the graph Walter. I think it reinforces what I have been saying for a while now. Despite the general prognosis, Oil futures are still likely to rise and corn & soy futures are likely to go through the roof in the near term. The flooding in the Midwest is much worse than 1993, less land is in CRP and demand, yields and values are much higher in real terms. The Iowa soy crop is likely gone, with it being too late to replant this year.
Kindest Regards
Hermit
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With or without religion, you would have good people doing good things and evil people doing evil things. But for good people to do evil things, that takes religion. - Steven Weinberg, 1999
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Fritz
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Re:The Baltic Dry Shipping Index (BDI)
« Reply #2 on: 2008-06-14 15:09:33 » |
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Gentlemen I realize this is not referenced; But ....
.... over a 'brew' at lunch, I hand a chance to talk with an IT refugee from the Alberta oil industry. He pointed out to me that all the Oil Companies have a financial branch the does the investing and lending and borrowing. He suggested to me that at this time the Oil Industry is driving up the price artificially to be able to buy back their shares to get ready for a slump in the price of oil at which time they then take over and consolidate the industry. (acknowledging that the long term shortage and trend is irrefutable).
As a side note; I was at the bank going over mortgage rates and the Canadian Banks raised their lending rate on Friday even though the Bank of Canada didn't budge. They are of the view that the housing prices in Canada will hold for at least the next 6 months and they can make some of the money back they lost in the US mortgage subprime silliness. Canadians have a tendency to lock in for 5 years, so the banks can look forward to the revenue stream.
Cheers
Fritz
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Where there is the necessary technical skill to move mountains, there is no need for the faith that moves mountains -anon-
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