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Hermit
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Bush War "a major debacle," outcome "in doubt" Defense Dept Research Center
« on: 2008-04-18 21:31:40 »
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Pentagon institute calls Iraq war 'a major debacle' with outcome 'in doubt'

[ Hermit : As full of lies, distortions and, or errors as it is, at least it acknowledges what anyone with a functioning brain following the debacle has known for over 5 years. ]

Source: McClatchy
Authors: Jonathan S. Landay, John Walcott (McClatchy Newspapers)
Dated: 2008-04-17
Refer Also: www.ndu.edu/inss/Occasional_Papers/OP5.pdf

The war in Iraq has become "a major debacle" and the outcome "is in doubt" despite improvements in security from the buildup in U.S. forces, according to a highly critical study published Thursday by the Pentagon's premier military educational institute.

The report released by the National Defense University raises fresh doubts about President Bush 's projections of a U.S. victory in Iraq just a week after Bush announced that he was suspending U.S. troop reductions.

The report carries considerable weight because it was written by Joseph Collins , a former senior Pentagon official, and was based in part on interviews with other former senior defense and intelligence officials who played roles in prewar preparations.

It was published by the university's National Institute for Strategic Studies , a Defense Department research center.

"Measured in blood and treasure, the war in Iraq has achieved the status of a major war and a major debacle," says the report's opening line.

At the time the report was written last fall, more than 4,000 U.S. and foreign troops, more than 7,500 Iraqi security forces and as many as 82,000 Iraqi civilians had been killed and tens of thousands of others wounded, while the cost of the war since March 2003 was estimated at $450 billion . [ Hermit : Notice the persistence in minimizing the Iraq civilian death toll. The reality is simply too painful for invested Americans to consider. Unfortunately, the depth to which their heads are buried in the sand, and the ongoing lies that "we don't count Iraqi deaths" ensures that everyone else is horribly aware not only that the death toll is many times higher than stated here  but also of the dissonance that causes it to be rejected. ]

"No one as yet has calculated the costs of long-term veterans' benefits or the total impact on service personnel and materiel," wrote Collins, who was involved in planning post-invasion humanitarian operations. [ Hermit : It appears that Collins does not follow the press or they would know of the studies starting in 2003 predicting direct costs of $ 1.5 trillion to current studies placing costs to date at the $ 3 to $5  trillion level. The current share of US debt of $450,000 per household or an increase of about $ 400,000 per household since Bush stole office tends to strongly confirm these estimates. ]

The report said that the United States has suffered serious political costs, with its standing in the world seriously diminished. Moreover, operations in Iraq have diverted "manpower, materiel and the attention of decision-makers" from "all other efforts in the war on terror" and severely strained the U.S. armed forces.

"Compounding all of these problems, our efforts there (in Iraq ) were designed to enhance U.S. national security, but they have become, at least temporarily, an incubator for terrorism and have emboldened Iran to expand its influence throughout the Middle East ," the report continued.
[ Hermit : This is an important realization. That the "training camps" that have been established in Iraq, and even more, the effectiveness of the improvised weapons being disseminated from Iraq to other centers,  are far more effective than anything prior to the "War on the World" debacles. ]

The addition of 30,000 U.S. troops to Iraq last year to halt the country's descent into all-out civil war has improved security, but not enough to ensure that the country emerges as a stable democracy at peace with its neighbors, the report said. [ Hermit : This is so wrong. Had "the surge" not occurred, or even had an antisurge occurred - as we should not forget the eminent persons group had recommended over a year earlier, but the same funds and supplies had still been disbursed buying a temporary alliance with the Baathists and disempowered Sunni minority,  the outcome would have been the same. A temporary reduction in violence. The redeployment and supplementation of forces to Baghdad did not and could not have had the effects it is claimed to have had in the South where troop levels - and violence - declined. What "the surge" was intended to achieve, was in fact achieved. The troops will be withdrawn by the next government who will then be argued to have "lost the war" unwinable though it ever was, just as the austerity program to begin to pay for the war (a process that will never be completed in my estimation) will be argued as "their" economic failure.  ]

"Despite impressive progress in security, the outcome of the war is in doubt," said the report. "Strong majorities of both Iraqis and Americans favor some sort of U.S. withdrawal. Intelligence analysts, however, remind us that the only thing worse than an Iraq with an American army may be an Iraq after a rapid withdrawal of that army." [ Hermit : This continues the lie that the foreign scofflaw who smashes into a house, kills the occupants, trashes the place  and camps in the smoldering ruins - asserting his right to do so forever - is the right person to prevent the neighbors from engaging in the disorderly conduct of attempting to eject the occupiers. There is so much wrong with this picture that it is very difficult to respond to it as any discussion of it tends towards supporting the lunatic idea that there could be some perspective where this is valid.]

"For many analysts (including this one), Iraq remains a 'must win,' but for many others, despite obvious progress under General David Petraeus and the surge, it now looks like a 'can't win.'"
[ Hermit : It is important to realize that this is a middling honest researcher reporting, after interviewing many of the architects and implementers of the illegal invasion and ongoing occupation. In other words, that the people who think the situation is a "can't win" are the very people who think it is a "must win." For what it is worth, I think that the very act of initiating this illegal war guaranteed that it is unwinnable, that the damage to our reputation and capacity to act as a purportedly neutral agent would be inescapable, that we would not be able to mitigate the effects of the chaos we caused and that we would dramatically alter the strategic balance and tactical landscape for the foreseeable future have all come home, as this report shows, to roost. At this point there is no unscrambling the omelet. We can only attempt to mitigate the long term effects by retreating as rapidly as possible and attempt to manage some of the worst effects by paying as much as possible to stabilize the situation. It probably goes without saying that the US will do none of this, and so the bad situation will become worse. ]

The report lays much of the blame for what went wrong in Iraq after the initial U.S. victory at the feet of then-Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld . It says that in November 2001 , before the war in Afghanistan was over, President Bush asked Rumsfeld "to begin planning in secret for potential military operations against Iraq ." [ Hermit : Which of course, as if it were needed, again proves Bush and his supporters liars, as they were still telling the world that they sought a peaceful resolution to the Iraq situation at the very time they engineered an illegal war of aggression. ]

Rumsfeld, who was closely allied with Vice President Dick Cheney , bypassed the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the report says, and became "the direct supervisor of the combatant commanders."

" . . . the aggressive, hands-on Rumsfeld," it continues, "cajoled and pushed his way toward a small force and a lightning fast operation." Later, he shut down the military's computerized deployment system, "questioning, delaying or deleting units on the numerous deployment orders that came across his desk." [ Hermit : The war would likely not have happened had the US been told that it was going to cost 3 to 5 trillion and require half a million to a million men to accomplish using the metrics which NATO has used in the past. So to blame Rumsfeld exclusively for the debacle of enabling and supporting Our Dear Leader's plans is disingenuous at best. ]

In part because "long, costly, manpower-intensive post-combat operations were anathema to Rumsfeld," the report says, the U.S. was unprepared to fight what Collins calls "War B," the battle against insurgents and sectarian violence that began in mid-2003, shortly after "War A," the fight against Saddam Hussein's forces, ended.

Compounding the problem was a series of faulty assumptions made by Bush's top aides, among them an expectation fed by Iraqi exiles that Iraqis would be grateful to America for liberating them from Saddam's dictatorship. The administration also expected that " Iraq without Saddam could manage and fund its own reconstruction." [ Hermit : Yet this was self evident to almost all the rest of the world - including the CoV. It wasn't a compounding of the problem, it was central to it. Just as the same bizarre mindset applies to our ongoing aggression against Iran. As if anything we do to them through force or chicanery will - or can - improve their perception of us as aggressive bullies - and by extension, fearful cowards. In which they may not be far from the mark. ]

The report also singles out the Bush administration's national security apparatus and implicitly President Bush and both of his national security advisers, Condoleezza Rice and Stephen Hadley , saying that "senior national security officials exhibited in many instances an imperious attitude, exerting power and pressure where diplomacy and bargaining might have had a better effect."


Collins ends his report by quoting Winston Churchill , who said: "Let us learn our lessons. Never, never believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on the strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. . . . Always remember, however sure you are that you can easily win, that there would not be a war if the other man did not think that he also had a chance."
« Last Edit: 2008-04-20 03:04:51 by Hermit » Report to moderator   Logged

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Re:Bush War "a major debacle," outcome "in doubt" Defense Dept Research Center
« Reply #1 on: 2008-04-19 02:35:00 »
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Re:Bush War "a major debacle," outcome "in doubt" Defense Dept Research Center
« Reply #2 on: 2008-04-20 01:53:44 »
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[Blunderov] The only thing that the Neocon criminal warmongers have liberated is the dogs of war which have now very sensibly turned upon their masters and bitten them in the ass. Mike Whitney holds out the hope of tribunals soon to come. Universal jurisdiction. Mmm.

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=viewArticle&code=WHI20080418&articleId=8730

US Financial Collapse Will End Bush/Cheney Iraq War
And it won't be 'a time of our choosing'

by Mike Whitney

Global Research, April 18, 2008
LewRockwell.com - 2008-04-16

"Come and see our overflowing morgues and find our little ones for us...
You may find them in this corner or the other, a little hand poking out, pointing out at you...
Come and search for them in the rubble of your "surgical" air raids, you may find a little leg or a little head... pleading for your attention.
Come and see them amassed in the garbage dumps, scavenging morsels of food...
Come and see, come..."~  "Flying Kites," Layla Anwar


The US Military has won every battle it has fought in Iraq, but it has lost the war.

Wars are won politically, not militarily. Bush doesn't understand this. He still clings to the belief that a political settlement can be imposed through force. But he is mistaken. The use of overwhelming force has only spread the violence and added to the political instability. Now Iraq is ungovernable. Was that the objective? Miles of concrete blast-walls snake through Baghdad to separate the warring parties; the country is fragmented into a hundred smaller pieces each ruled by local militia commanders. These are the signs of failure not success. That's why the American people no longer support the occupation. They're just being practical; they know Bush's plan won't work. As Nir Rosen says, "Iraq has become Somalia."

The administration still supports Iraqi President Nouri al Maliki, but al-Maliki is a meaningless figurehead who will have no effect on the country's future. He has no popular base of support and controls nothing beyond the walls of the Green Zone. The al-Maliki government is merely an Arab façade designed to convince the American people that political progress is being made, but there is no progress. It's a sham. The future is in the hands of the men with guns; they're the ones who have divided Iraq into locally-controlled fiefdoms and they are the one's who will ultimately decide who will rule the state. At present, the fighting between the factions is being described as "sectarian warfare," but the term is intentionally misleading. The fighting is political in nature; the various militias are competing with each other to see who will fill the vacuum left by the removal of Saddam. It's a power struggle. The media likes to portray the conflict as a clash between half-crazed Arabs – "dead-enders and terrorists" – who relish the idea killing their countrymen, but that's just a way of demonizing the enemy. In truth, the violence is entirely rational; it is the inevitable reaction to the dissolution of the state and the occupation by foreign troops. Many military experts predicted that there would be outbreaks of fighting after the initial invasion, but their warnings were shrugged off by clueless politicians and the cheerleading media. Now the violence has flared up again in Basra and Baghdad, and there is no end in sight. Only one thing seems certain, Iraq's future will not be decided at the ballot box. Bush has made sure of that.

The US military does not rule Iraq nor does it have the power to control events on the ground. It's just one of many militias vying for power in a state that is ruled by warlords. After the army conducts combat operations, it is forced to retreat to its camps and bases. This point needs to be emphasized in order to understand that there is no real future for the occupation. The US simply does not have the manpower to hold territory or to establish security. In fact, the presence of American troops incites violence because they are seen as forces of occupation, not liberators. Survey's show that the vast majority of the Iraqi people want US troops to leave. The military has destroyed too much of the country and slaughtered too many people to expect that these attitudes will change anytime soon. Iraqi poet and blogger Layla Anwar sums up the feelings of many of the war's victims in a recent post on her web site "An Arab Woman's Blues":

"At the gates of Babylon the Great, you are still struggling, fighting away, chasing this or the other, detaining, bombing from above, filling up morgues, hospitals, graveyards and embassies and borders with queues for exit-visas.

Not one Iraqi wishes your presence. Not one Iraqi accepts your occupation.

Got news for you SOBs, you will never control Iraq, not in six years, not in ten years, not in 20 years....You have brought upon yourself the hate and the curse of all Iraqis, Arabs and the rest of the world...now face your agony." (Layla Anwar; "An Arab Woman's Blues: Reflections in a sealed bottle")

Is Bush hoping to change the mind of Layla or the millions of other Iraqis who have lost loved ones or been forced into exile or seen their country and culture crushed beneath the boot heel of foreign occupation? The hearts and minds campaign is lost. The US will never be welcome in Iraq.

According to a survey in the British Medical Journal Lancet more than a million Iraqis have been killed in the war. Another four million have been either internally displaced or have fled the country. But the figures tell us nothing about the magnitude of the disaster that Bush has caused by attacking Iraq. The invasion is the greatest human catastrophe in the Middle East since the Nakba in 1948. Living standards have declined precipitously in every area – infant mortality, clean water, food, security, medical supplies, education, electrical power, employment etc. Even oil production is still below pre-war levels. The invasion is the most comprehensive policy failure since Vietnam; everything has gone wrong. The heart of the Arab world has descended into chaos. The suffering is incalculable.

The main problem is the occupation; it is the primary catalyst for violence and an obstacle to political settlement. As long as the occupation persists, so will the fighting. The claims that the so-called surge has changed the political landscape are greatly exaggerated. Retired Lt. General William Odom commented on this point in an interview on the Jim Lehrer News Hour:

"The surge has sustained military instability and achieved nothing in political consolidation.... Things are much worse now. And I don't see them getting any better. This was foreseeable a year and a half ago. And to continue to put the cozy veneer of comfortable half-truths on this is to deceive the American public and to make them think it is not the charade it is.... When you say that the Lebanization of Iraq is taking place, yes, but not because of Iran, but because the U.S. went in and made this kind of fragmentation possible. And it has occurred over the last five years.... The al-Maliki government is worse off now... The notion that there's some kind of progress is absurd. The al-Maliki government uses its Ministry of Interior like a death squad militia. So to call Sadr an extremist and Maliki a good guy just overlooks the reality that there are no good guys." (Jim Lehrer News Hour)

The war in Iraq was lost before the first shot was fired. The conflict never had the support of the American people and Iraq never posed a threat to US national security. The whole pretext for the war was based on lies; it was a coup orchestrated by elites and the media to carry out a far-right agenda. Now the mission has failed, but no one wants to admit their mistakes by withdrawing; so the butchery continues without pause.

How Will It End?

The Bush administration has decided to pursue a strategy that is unprecedented in US history. It has decided to continue to prosecute a war that has already been lost morally, strategically, and militarily. But fighting a losing war has its costs. America is much weaker now than it was when Bush first took office in 2000; politically, economically and militarily. US power and prestige around the world will continue to deteriorate until the troops are withdrawn from Iraq. But that's unlikely to happen until all other options have been exhausted. Deteriorating economic conditions in the financial markets are putting enormous downward pressure on the dollar. The corporate bond and equities markets are in disarray; the banking system is collapsing, consumer spending is down, tax revenues are falling, and the country is headed into a painful and protracted recession. The US will leave Iraq sooner than many pundits believe, but it will not be at a time of our choosing. Rather, the conflict will end when the United States no longer has the capacity to wage war. That time is not far off.

The Iraq War signals the end of US interventionism for at least a generation; maybe longer. The ideological foundation for the war (preemption/regime change) has been exposed as a baseless justification for unprovoked aggression. Someone will have to be held accountable. There will have to be international tribunals to determine who is responsible in the deaths of over one million Iraqis.


Mike Whitney is a frequent contributor to Global Research.  Global Research Articles by Mike Whitney
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Re:Bush War "a major debacle," outcome "in doubt" Defense Dept Research Center
« Reply #3 on: 2008-04-20 05:44:17 »
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