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Blunderov
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Swine Flu Epidemic Looms
« on: 2009-04-26 13:00:05 » |
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[Blunderov] The 4th horseman enters? This looks like the real deal - unlike the Bird Flu scare. Look after yourselves people 
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/ben-sherwood/swine-flu-survival-three_b_191459.html
Ben Sherwood: Swine Flu Survival: Three Ways to Protect Yourself
26 April 2009, 09:23:47 | Ben Sherwood
The dreaded swine flu is spreading, infecting Americans in four states and killing at least 80 in Mexico. The World Health Organization (WHO) warns of a "public health emergency."
"This virus has clearly a pandemic potential," says Margaret Chan, director general of WHO.
The disease itself sounds especially ominous, spreading quickly from human to human. It's "a completely novel virus," says the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Indeed, the new strain is a mixture of human virus, bird virus, and pig viruses from all over the world. Experts say this new variant of swine flu seems particularly worrisome because people are getting sick without any contact with pigs. Even worse, young, healthy people are dying at a striking rate, a telltale sign of the worst flu epidemics.
(Swine flu fears aren't new in the United States. In February 1976, a 19-year-old army private at Fort Dix, New Jersey, died within 24 hours of becoming infected with swine flu. Soon, 500 soldiers were afflicted and the US government began a controversial nationwide vaccination campaign. Ultimately, some 40 million Americans were inoculated. As a result, several hundred people developed Guillain- Barré syndrome, a serious neurological condition, and the immunization program was stopped.)
What's going to happen this time? Without question, the disease will spread farther and wider. At this point, as the CDC says, it can't be contained or controlled.
What can you do to protect yourself? Experts offer a a few suggestions:
1. Wash Your Hands Frequently. It may sound obvious, but hand-washing with soap and water for around 20 seconds is the single best thing you can do (if you're going to go out into the world and interact with other human beings). The CDC estimates that 80 percent of all infections are spread by hands. If you can't wash your hands regularly, try hand-sanitizers with 60 percent alcohol content.
2. Practice "Social Distancing." That's the fancy term for staying away from other people if you're sick or if you're concerned that they may be infected. Again, it may sound obvious, but experts believe it's worth repeating: Isolation reduces your chances of getting infected or infecting others.
3. Recognize the Symptoms and Get Help. Swine flu symptoms are similar to regular flu: Fever, body aches, sore throat, cough, runny nose, vomiting, diarrhea, and lethargy. If you don't feel well, seek medical attention. The current swine flu is resistant to two of four antiviral drugs approved for combating the flu. Symmetrel and Flumadine are apparently no use against this strain but Tamiflu and Relenza appear to work.
What are the chances of a global pandemic? "The situation is uncertain and unpredictable and likely to be a marathon more than a sprint," says Dr. Richard Besser, acting director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
No doubt, swine flu will dominate headlines in the days ahead. Every case will be carefully tracked and deservedly so.
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For more information, the CDC has set up a toll-free hotline: 1-800-CDC-INFO. Or check out the CDC Website.
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Hermit
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Re:Swine Flu Epidemic Looms
« Reply #1 on: 2009-04-26 15:00:19 » |
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The "bird flu scare" isn't over, the last strain was simply of relatively low lethality and not particularly infectious. High lethality and high transmission rate strains exist and have occurred before. The 1918 Spanish Flu epidemic was but one example, and the probability is that it will happen again - and be much worse - due to the greater amount of travel occurring today. And we still have no vaccine for it.
The Spanish Flu epidemic of 1918 had a much higher transmission rate than we are seeing from the current outbreak of Swine Flu, infecting 20% to 50% of populations globally, with a mortality rate of 2% to 20% depending largely on strain and the quality of care. Modern drugs and care giving enabling the provision of symptomatic relief, prevention of coinfections and direct treatment with antiviral agents such as Tamiflu would probably reduce mortality rates from a similar epidemic to half of that.
With an early mortality rate of well below 10% and very limited number of infections to date, I don't see Swine Flue as being nearly as great a threat as the Spanish Flu which was a modified avian virus rather than a pig virus, unless it makes the jump to avian form (which is very possible especially where pigs are fed uncooked poultry carcasses or where poultry are fed pig offal in their meal).
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Hermit&Co
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With or without religion, you would have good people doing good things and evil people doing evil things. But for good people to do evil things, that takes religion. - Steven Weinberg, 1999
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Blunderov
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Re:Swine Flu Epidemic Looms
« Reply #2 on: 2009-04-27 06:39:53 » |
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Quote from: Hermit on 2009-04-26 15:00:19
<snip>The "bird flue scare" isn't over<snip> |
[Blunderov] Thanks for the perspective. This particular Swine Flu does seem to be causing some concern though, but I suppose one should take into account that nobody in government wants another Katrina fiasco.
http://www.opednews.com/articles/Are-We-Witnessing-The-Birt-by-William-Cormier-090425-286.html
Are We Witnessing The Birth Of A Pandemic?
by William Cormier
www.opednews.com
<snip>The CDC and WHO have been warning us for years - the world is overdue for another flu pandemic. Below is a brief history of flu pandemics and as we look at their frequency, it appears that we are overdue for another serious outbreak:</snip>
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Hermit
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Re:Swine Flu Epidemic Looms
« Reply #3 on: 2009-05-05 00:55:54 » |
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One flu over the cuckoo's nest, or: Whatever happened to context and analysis in the news?
[ Hermit : Sensible commentary ]
Source: opednews
Authors: M. Davis
Dated: 2009-05-03
While many in the media can't tell the difference between pandemic, epidemic and catastrophe, the nation continues to reel under the onslaught of media disaster-masters. To hear them tell it, we are at the foothills of a biological Second Coming, ushered in by legions of pig flu viruses on the march.
Who needs details or clarification when a mountain of hysterical rumor, inuendo and disinformation will do?
For instance, let's get down to basics and see if we can understand some major differences between: pandemic, epidemic and endemic.- A pandemic is defined as: An epidemic (a sudden outbreak) that becomes very widespread and affects a whole region, a continent, or the world.
- An epidemic affects more than the expected number of cases of disease occurring in a community or region during a given period of time. A sudden severe outbreak within a region or a group as, for example, AIDS in Africa or AIDS in intravenous drug users.
- An endemic is present in a community at all times but in low frequency. An endemic is continuous as in the case of malaria in some areas of the world or as with illicit drugs in some neighborhoods. (medterms.com)
Hence, an endemic, or low frequency occurring disease may become an epidemic, when occurrences rise rapidly, and when those occurrences spread to a broader geographic area, they generate a pandemic.
The problem with the hysterical fear mongering that we have had with SARS, bird (avian) flu, and now, pig (swine) flu is that people, assisted by our infamous 24-hour news cycle, confuse the terms and scare themselves silly. This also provides a very fertile hunting ground for pharmaceutical companies wanting to unload last year's flu vaccine.
U.S. Human Cases of H1N1 Flu Infection
(As of May 1, 2009, 11:00 AM ET)
| States | # of laboratory
confirmed cases | Deaths | | Arizona | 4 | | | California | 13 | | | Colorado | 2 | | | Delaware | 4 | | | Illinois | 3 | | | Indiana | 3 | | | Kansas | 2 | | | Kentucky | 1 | | | Massachusetts | 2 | | | Michigan | 2 | | | Minnesota | 1 | | | Nebraska | 1 | | | Nevada | 1 | | | New Jersey | 5 | | | New York | 50 | | | Ohio | 1 | | | South Carolina | 16 | | | Texas | 281 | | | Virginia | 2 | | | TOTAL COUNTS | 141 cases | 1 death |
International Human Cases of Swine Flu Infection (See:World Health Organization)
Good ole garden variety influenza kills as many as 37,500 people a year in the United States. (Jonathan Dushof, et. al. "Mortality due to Influenza in the United States-An Annualized Regression Approach Using Multiple-Cause Mortality Data", American Journal of Epidemiology, November, 2006). But, so far, as of this writing, swine flu, world wide has shut down entire nations, closed schools and sent the stock market twitching.
As of this writing, the United States has reported 1 death in Texas, after a toddler from Mexico was brought to the US. Nationwide, so far 141 cases have been reported, but those 141 cases have generated the closure of schools.
More than one analyst has blamed the swine flu panic on our modern communication and information system. We now have the ability to transmit information about distant disasters, disease outbreaks, wars and revolutions in the blink of an eye, feeding the flames of hysteria and panic worldwide.
Between the twits on Twitter and the aggressive approach to halting swine flu, 141 cases of this year's flu "monster" is putting the breaks on an already slowed down economy. People can't go to work, school or shop if communities panic and overreact—and our economy can't run well if there is no one at work and no customer coming in the door.
Some communities are shutting down, forting up, and pulling up the drawbridge in the hope that they can contain swine flu in their communities. Aided and abetted by hysteria and fear, the nation has turned a mild outbreak into a national catastrophe, and the fear mongers are stirring up the broth, praying for the worst.
The news hounds and information junkies are throwing more blood in the water, using everything from cell phones to the 24-hour news channel to fuel the frenzy. Twitter-addicted fear mongers continue to drive the fear engine, in some kind of pathological need to spread micro-rumors and tidbits to as many people as they can."Response actions are aggressive, but they may vary across states and communities depending on local circumstances. Communities, businesses, places of worship, schools and individuals can all take action to slow the spread of this outbreak. People who are sick are urged to stay home from work or school and to avoid contact with others, except to seek medical care. This action can avoid spreading illness further." CDC. The mainstream media has followed Twitter over the edge, each committing the same sin—generating out of context information to masses amounts of people—fear mongering. Foreign Policy has a very interesting article about Twitter's power to generate massive amounts of misinformation and the problem with disseminating information without context, noting that:"...the "swine flu" Twitter-scare has once again proved the importance of context -- and how badly most Twitter conversations are hurt by the lack of it. The problem with Twitter is that there is very little context you can fit into 140 characters, even less so if all you are doing is watching a stream of messages that mention "swine flu." Now, the lack of context is probably not a problem in 99 percent of discussions happening on Twitter -- or, at least, it's not a problem with devastating global consequences." (“Swine flu: Twitter's Power to Misinform.” Foreign Policy, 4-25-09) While many criticize Twitter addicts for blasting information tidbits just for its own sake, there is something to be said about the way we are reporting “swine flu.” The whole episode continues to ape what is happening in the social networks and Twitter. Namely, flinging information around without putting that information in context and turning the media into an engine of fear mongering and sensationalism.
Too many people are benefiting from this fear mongering. The media generates ratings and revenue by pandering to our fear. Pharmaceutical companies are raking in billions by selling flu vaccine that they couldn't get rid of. And the fear mongers and sensationalism addicts bask in the glow of the biggest high they've had for years.
And then there are the conspiracy theorists who can't believe that our factory farming methods could have anything to do with this. The whole mess, many of them believe, came from some military lab or terrorist's test tube—couldn't possibly be the result of industrial pig farming.
The fact that we house tens of thousands of pigs in industrial swine farms, the fact that these swine farms generate so much feces that the farm operators have to dig holes for huge lagoons of disease-generating pig excrement, oh, no, this couldn't possibly have anything to do with breeding disease.
This, despite a report which aired concerns about the harmful biological byproduct of factory pig farming."Bioaerosols, or airborne particles of biological origin, are a major component of the particulate matter from livestock facilities. These include bacteria, fungi, mold and bacterial spores, viruses, mammalian cell debris, products of microorganisms, pollens, and aeroallergens." (Pew Commission on Industrial Farm Animal Production, http://www.ncifap.org/reports) Why do people have a problem understanding that lagoons containing hundreds of gallons of pig manure can incubate all sorts of diseases and viruses? We don't have to go searching for some squinty-eyed terrorist. All we have to do is look at the pig crap oceans in the US and Mexico.
One hog excretes 3 gallons of waste a day. A 2,500 hog operation generates a whopping 7,500 gallons of pig excrement daily. According to one report, “The 500,000 pigs at a single Smithfield subsidiary in Utah generate more fecal matter each year than the 1.5 million inhabitants of Manhattan.” (Rolling Stone, 12-14-06) That's 1.5 million gallons of pig waste generated daily.
Information war and cyber terrorism are not part of some distant future. Propaganda and manipulating news and opinion are as old as humanity.
Those who succumb to visions of beady-eyed terrorist, or out of control “black ops” being at the root of this current “swine flu epidemic” have never been near a pig farm. Even the small ones stink, but the concentrated industrial farming operations are in a class of their own. They generate billions of tons of pig manure, much of which languishes in lagoons, often seeping into ground water, creeks and rivers.
Pig waste, particularly in such large concentrations is toxic waste—some say it is just as dangerous as radioactive waste. In addition to the massive stench which could sicken a herd of maggots:"Industrial pig waste also contains a host of other toxic substances: ammonia, methane, hydrogen sulfide, carbon monoxide, cyanide, phosphorous, nitrates and heavy metals. In addition, the waste nurses more than 100 microbial pathogens that can cause illness in humans, including salmonella, cryptosporidium, streptocolli and girardia. Each gram of hog (manure) can contain as much as 100 million fecal coliform bacteria." (Ibid) Simply put, these pig manure lagoons are incubators of disease-generating organisms. Much of today's media continues to pander to fear and sensationalize the numbers –141 known US cases of swine flu and 1 known death. We ignore industrial farming as an incubator of animal and human disease at our peril.
Sound bite reporting and flashing twits around the world at lightening speeds dilutes the urgency of the need to regulate and recycle animal waste disposal.
The nation's mega-chicken, hog, and cattle operations produce billions of tons of animal excrement annually. That waste is often stored in inadequate manure lagoons, or pits. Rain run off, leakage and spills from these manure sites continue to contaminate creeks, rivers and streams. Run off from animal farms have also been blamed for oceanic pollution.
Not only are these operations polluting our waterways, but the manure lagoons create a fertile breeding ground for disease organisms as well. Until we understand the magnitude of pollution and disease breeding that industrial animal production generate, we will remain vulnerable to cross-species disease outbreaks.
More than a quarter of a million children in 400 plus schools in 17 states are out of school for about weeks due to the “outbreak”. As of Friday there are 141 cases of swine flu with one fatality.
As we scare ourselves silly over 141 known cases of this disease and one death, some of our cities will see a murder a day, or more. Our morgues will fill up with cancer victims, AIDS fatalities, and people who succumbed to heart and respiratory ailments.
We confuse quantity of reporting on “news” with quality reporting and until we learn to tell the difference “they” will continue to manipulate us with fear mongering tactics and distraction. We have seen the enemy and the enemy is us.
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With or without religion, you would have good people doing good things and evil people doing evil things. But for good people to do evil things, that takes religion. - Steven Weinberg, 1999
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WHO declares swine flu pandemic
« Reply #4 on: 2009-06-13 09:33:27 » |
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The World Health Organization (WHO) has declared a global flu pandemic after holding an emergency meeting.
Source: BBC News
It means the swine flu virus is spreading in at least two regions of the world with rising cases being seen in the UK, Australia, Japan and Chile. WHO chief Dr Margaret Chan said the move did not mean the virus was causing more severe illness or more deaths. The swine flu (H1N1) virus first emerged in Mexico in April and has since spread to 74 countries.
Official reports say there have been nearly 30,000 cases globally and 141 deaths, with figures rising daily. Hong Kong said it was closing all its nurseries and primary schools for two weeks following 12 school cases.
It is the first flu pandemic in 40 years - the last in 1968 killed about one million people. However, the current pandemic seems to be moderate and causing mild illness in most people. Most cases are occurring in young working age adults and a third to a half of complications are presenting in otherwise healthy people.
Dr Chan said: "We have evidence to suggest we are seeing the first pandemic of the 21st Century. "Moving to pandemic phase six does not imply we will see increased in deaths or serious cases."
She added it was important to get the right balance between complacency and vigilance and that pandemic strategies would vary between countries depending on their specific situation.
And the WHO does not recommend closure of borders or any restrictions on the movement of people, goods or services. But the picture could change very quickly.
"No other pandemic has been detected so early or watched so closely," Dr Chan said. UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon called for calm.
"Let me stress: this is a formal statement about the geographical spread of the disease. It is not in itself a cause for alarm," he said.
He warned that in the developing world the consequences of the virus could be more serious, and that the southern hemisphere was now entering the flu season. One factor which has prompted the move to a level six pandemic was that in the southern hemisphere, the virus seems to be crowding out normal seasonal influenza. The move was not prompted by the situation in any one country but the reports that it had spread in several parts of the world, officials said.
The BBC's Imogen Foulkes, in Geneva, says that while the number of cases has made the declaration inevitable, the WHO will have to manage the global anxiety the declaration of a pandemic will generate.
Experts have warned that poorer nations, especially those in the southern hemisphere now heading into their winter season, face the greatest risk from the flu pandemic.
Pandemic planning
There have been more than 800 cases in the UK with some areas of Scotland being particularly hard hit. The government has been stockpiling antivirals such as Tamiflu and has ordered vaccine, some doses of which could be available by October.
England's chief medical officer Sir Liam Donaldson said the WHO declaration of a pandemic would not significantly change the way the UK was dealing with swine flu at the moment. But he added there could be some minor changes to who received antivirals.
"The declaration of a pandemic per se doesn't make a big difference to the way we are handling the outbreaks we have.
"We are going to continue to investigate every case that occurs and treat their contacts with antivirals even though they may not be ill.
"The difference is that the Health Protection Agency has learnt a lot about approaching this question of antiviral prophylaxis and they are going to be treating the closer contacts of the cases, rather than the more far-flung contacts, because they feel that that is supported by what they know so far about how the disease is transmitting.
He added: "These flu viruses can change their pattern of attack, so when we come into the flu season in the autumn and winter in this country, when we expect a big surge of cases, we need to watch very carefully to see if the character of the virus is changing."
Scottish health secretary Nicola Sturgeon said a move to level six means that countries need to be ready to implement pandemic plans immediately but the UK was already operating at a "heightened state of readiness".
But it could affect the speed at which the UK gets pandemic vaccine supplies but that had been factored into pandemic planning. Flu expert Professor John Oxford said people should not panic as the outbreak was milder than others seen in the past century.
"It is global and fulfilling the requirements of a pandemic but I don't think anyone should worry because nothing drastic has happened between yesterday and today."
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