Re: virus: Kerry Iraq foam.
« on: 2004-07-29 00:53:42 »
Joe, you are playing in the political foam on the surface of the ocean without even getting your feet wet in the depths.
For example, the memes of Islamic Jehad have been around for a *long* time. Why didn't we get someone doing OBL's act back in the 50s?
The reason for terrorism/war now and not 50 years ago is extremely simple: Population growth in excess of economic growth.
Declining income per capita sets off "looming" or incipient privation detectors. When we all lived as hunter gatherers, that was the signal that turned up the gain on xenophobic memes. When the warriors were psyched up and their rational thinking impaired enough, they marched off to glory or death.
The other way for a tribe to enter the impaired thinking war mode was for them to be attacked. Then they fought back in a fury and either won (usually taking the defeated tribe's women) or they died in which case the attackers took their women.
Alas it is not politically correct for a modern tribe (nation) to kill all the males of an attacking tribe (nation) even if it *would* greatly simplify things *and* improve the income per capita ratio.
The western world has segwayed (through times of great pain) from tribal days into conditions far outside the environment of our evolution. As E.O. Wilson put it, we are incredible lucky that under conditions of high income women have kids at replacement level or below. This leaves the western world with rising income per capita--at least until the oil runs out.
But even a rich tribe will go into war mode (that is stupid-irrational) when attacked. That's what OBL did to the US. Under those circumstances it was possible to lead the US population into supporting a war of retaliation against Iraq. Stupid target, but my point is that war mode *is* stupid mode. Otherwise the warriors would have stayed home and starved when bad times came along.
Of course, the effect of attacking Iraq was to put *them* into war mode. The poor (central) planning to get the Iraq economy going didn't work (why am I not surprised that central economy planning didn't work?). So besides being attacked we now have "looming privation" to keep the Iraq tribe in war mode.
Given these insights, what policy do they suggest?
Ideally, you would put shoes on the Islamic women (metaphor for women having power). That happened in Northern Ireland. About 30 years ago the birth rate there fell to about half of what it had been over a period of a few years. (Figuring out why would be an interesting project. It probably had roots ten or more years previous when the women who were going to limit families were growing up.) Eventually economic growth outpaced population growth resulting in rising income per capita. *That's* what took the steam out of the IRA.
Unfortunately 30 years is way beyond the horizons of politicians. Even without the time problem, the current administration isn't likely to endorse anything as radical as empowering Islamic women.
The next policy it suggests is to cut funding for containing SARS, or reactivate smallpox or the new bird flu and let disease reduce the population. That would only work to reduce the social pressures for wars till the population built back up, so it's hardly a long term solution.
Finally, we could push hard on advanced technology, particularly nanotechnology. Nanotech has the potential to raise income much faster than population so the psychological mechanisms leading to war should shut off.
Everything else, OBL, Bush, Moore, Kerry it's all foam. The deep and long evolved psychological mechanism from the stone age are really in control of our joint destiny.
* * * * *
Even with these insights, I see no way out for Iraq that will take less than a generation--like happened in Lebanon. After something close to 30 years of declining per capita income when it did finally improve a little, war mode switched off. Oddly enough, staying there and keeping a low profile might be the best we can do. As long as US troops are there, Islamic war/terrorism will be directed at them rather than coming to North America. That's not going to be easy to explain to the troops, but 10 or 100 or 1000 times as many Iraqis will die in the civil disruptions.
A while ago I made a joke posting that what we needed to do was to swap out the population of Iraq. On the basis of theory it might not be entirely a joke. That would switch off war mode because coming to the US even in such numbers would improve their per capita income. And the US citizens that replaced them would be in a place they could and would make a booming economy. Of course it doesn't deal with income per capita problems in the rest of the Islamic world.
If you want blame liberals, be my guest. You can make a case for blaming everyone who has talked about a bleak future, and that's certainly a liberal theme.
Keith Henson
PS. Things were *much* less complicated in the day of Genghis Khan. We can see how *he* dealt with captured populations by the fact that some 16 million men in central Asia share his Y chromosome.
If you don't care for Bush, be thankful this is no longer in style. :-)
It is surpassingly strange when someone reductionistically posts a supposed single explanation of a widely divergent phenomenon such as war, and yet has the temerity and unmitigated gall to tell others that do not hold to their explanatory meme (not even a memeplex, for this requires multiple memes) that THEY are the float-on-the-shallow-foam simplistic ones. If such a population-pressure-exigency-to-make-war mechanism kicks in, it is not memetic, but genetic. Thus it can be either exacerbated or dampened, or perhaps even overridden, by other, more memtic factors, such as ideology. It is in the spirit of proferring an example that is grasping towards this deeper, more complex, subtle and nuanced understanding, which unlike yours, is not so oversimplified that it fails the Occam's Razor corollary of explaining all the relevant phenomena, that I post the following essay.
There have been several, though not a lot, of causes of war in history. Some theorists have said that all wars' causes really devolve down to the one and same cause, "population pressure" in the words of Robert Heinlein or "resource intensification and depletion" in the work of anthropologist Marvin Harris, which is another way of saying the same thing.
But these theories do not account for the influence of religion or ideology in militarizing a society to the point that it launches aggressive war upon its neighbors. For example even if we allow that population pressure reached critical mass for the ancient, pre-empire Romans, it does not explain why they decided to manage the crisis through military expansion rather than increased trade or other peaceful arrangements.
Populations, not just individuals, are prone to delusions of grandeur. Whatever made the Romans set off toward empire, the time came when empire was its own justification. Conquest "for the glory of Rome" was reason enough. Ideologies are always self-justifying. For all its achievements in engineering and law, the Roman empire was cruel and harshly oppressive.
Germany had been bled white by the Great War (as had France and England), and had suffered enormous deaths from the postwar influenza epidemic that took more lives than the war, worldwide. But those human losses didn't stop Hitlerism from taking root and growing into the nihilistic monstrosity that shook the world.
Religion is not immune, of course, to the dangers of sliding into ideological absolutism. Before the end of the Roman empire, the Church had become a heavy political player in its own right, culminating the right of the Pope to crown Charlemagne as emperor, a right that continued until Napoleon snatched the crown from the Pope's hands and placed it on his head himself.
With the crowns of Europe and the seat of Peter in a mutually back-scratching relationship (most of the time), a strange religious-political symbiosis developed that finally enabled Pope Urban to command them to conquer the Holy Land from Muslim rule in the name of Christ. That Europe had been fighting the Islamic empire for a few hundred years, in varying intensity, made the command much easier to obey. But it did turn a rather conventional series of wars about territory into a Holy War all around.
Territorial disputes can be permanently resolved. "54-40 or fight!" never became a war cry because Britain considered the land concerned - a border dispute in the American northwest - was not worth fighting for. Now the matter has been relegated to history, never to rise again.
But religious and ideological conflicts (RICs) exist not on the earth, but in the mind. What is at stake is not fishing rights or trade routes or minerals or arable land, but the warring parties' fundamental understanding of reality and their place in it. Although mundane concerns are never entirely absent from RICs, they really form the opportunity for conflict rather than the underlying cause. The cause is absolutism that allows for no competitors.
I think the American Civil War fits into that category. It's a little too facile to say that had the North and South known in early 1861 that warring over their respective, irreconcilable ideologies would take hundreds of thousands of lives, that they would have found another way to resolve them. I'm not so sure they would have or could have. As Lincoln said, the country could not continue to exist half slave and half free. No compromise was possible any longer. They had all been tried.
The war on terror is a war of ultimates, too, although I don't think that many people of the West realize it. Our al Qaeda enemies certainly do. Al Qaeda, however, is more extreme than post-Roman Western history is generally familiar with (Nazism being a notable exception) because Islam is the most complete merger of politics and religion the world has seen since its inception, certainly more complete than, say, bushido Japan.
An historical, basic tenet of Islam, not just radicalized Islam, is that all human affairs of any kind must be under divine control, mediated through sharia. The present, clear separation of religion and politics that the West took centuries to develop is formally absent from Islam, the radical variety or not. Fortunately, most Islamic societies have honored this total integration only in the breach. But al Qaeda et. al. say that the return of Islamic societies to the rule of strict sharia law is a non-negotiable goal. (It can be argued, I think, that no such "return" is possible for the simple reason it never really existed as al Qaeda thinks. Islamic societies are really post-Muhammed, and they immediately began adjusting the tenets to cultural and political realities, all the while claiming they were the True Faithful.)
Islam, not just the radicalized version, teaches that Allah's control over events of the world and human life is total and complete. Pretty much the extent of human free will is either to rebel against Allah or to submit. Yet even rebellion is, somehow, under the controlling purview of Allah. Everything that happens, without exception, is the preordained will of Allah.
Osama bin Laden bombed two American embassies in Africa killing mostly Muslim Africans by the hundreds. The Quran prohibits murder, and especially forbids Muslims from killing other Muslims. An ABC reporter subsequently managed to interview bin Laden and asked him whether he was responsible for the deaths of the other Muslims. No, replied OBL, I am a tool of Allah, and whatever I do is determined to happen by Allah. Those people would have died at that time in any event, because it was Allah's will that they die.
In Islam, Allah holds all the power marbles. Humanity has no true self will or self power.
Bin Laden's sort of self-justifying extremism is not the mainstream of Islam, but neither is it as far removed as we might imagine. Fatalism is a characteristic of Islam. There is no human freedom. Human liberty, especially as Americans think of it, is literally a foreign concept to Islam, especially Arab Islam.
We say that the defining idea of American liberty is "self evident:" Human beings "are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness." This claim has no natural fit with Islam. The idea that humans, created by the power of Allah, could inherently possess unalienable rights of their own, which no authority may remove, would require Islam to surrender the idea that Allah enjoys meticulous control over all affairs of nature and humankind. But this notion is lethally dangerous to the defining idea of Islam itself: that Allah has all the power.
Liberty as we conceive it is at the heart of the conflict. For Muslims, the most desirable state of human society is not one that is free, in the Western sense, but one that is submissive to Allah, according to the dictates of Quran. This state of society is dar al Islam, the world of peace. Anything else is the dar al harb, the "world of war." Societies, peoples or nations are either at war with Allah or at peace (through submission) to Allah.
This concept of submission is the matter of ultimate concern to Islam generally and is enormously amplified by radicalized Islamists such as Osama bin Laden and his allies. Hand in hand with this ultimate concern are what we would think of as territorial, political, legal and social concerns, namely the ejection of non-Muslims from Saudi Arabia and other Persian Gulf countries, the imposition of strict rule of all-encompassing sharia over every facet of human affairs, and, longer term, the restoration of the lands of the old Caliphate to Muslim dominion.
In their view, no sacrifice is too great to achieve those ends, and no violence is unjustified.
I don't think we have reached the point yet of widespread American understanding that the war is one of ultimates for us as well.
Dennis Mullin, who traveled widely in the Islamic world for 10 years as a foreign correspondent for U.S. News and World Report and other publications, wrote in the WaPo last year that "The present war is really a crusade" fought by Islam against the West- and non-Western non-Muslims.
The al Qaeda leader, in the "Letter to the American People" published last November and attributed to him, [made] very clear that bin Laden's ultimate goal is to undermine Western civilization in its totality, which strongly implies that even if Israel didn't exist, he would still be pursuing what is really, as reluctant as we are to say it, a religious crusade in the true historical sense.
Throughout history, disruption of the social and political order of the day has been a regular occurrence. But this is a different kind of fight, one with long roots in the past and one that will last long into the future. In the letter, bin Laden purportedly said, "it is to this religion that we call you," implying the need for a global theological upheaval. ...
Lest there be any doubt that what is going on now is a real crusade, and not just a protest against American hegemony, it is important to note that al Qaeda and other Muslim forces are now or have been engaged in conflicts not just against the West proper, but against Hindus in Kashmir and increasingly in other parts of India, as well as against Orthodox Russians in Chechnya. Moreover, the Muslim Uighurs are fighting the mostly Buddhist Chinese; and Muslims are doing battle in Indonesia and the Philippines. Hundreds were recently killed in Muslim-Christian violence in Nigeria over a beauty pageant (ironically won by a Turk, after it was moved to London). Muslim extremist cells are operating in scores of countries, and their cross-border cooperation in training and financing gives credence to the assumption that the driving force is not strictly localized grievances (witness Kenya, Bali) as much as a clarion call to a worldwide transnational Islamic revival. ...
Absent a true reformation within Islam itself (which seems increasingly unlikely), the frustration over the present and the dreams of past glory of the 7th century are manifested by a destructive effort to bring the rest of the world down to Islam's current level. Our enemies wish us lethal harm, have present means to inflict it and are developing means to deliver mass destruction to our shores. There is a large, well-funded terrorist organization, active in many nations, possessed of men who will die to achieve their aims, which has already claimed the right to kill four million Americans. Sept. 11, 2001 proved that they have the will to do so. If Iran's mullahs or North Korea are not actual allies already, they will be, especially if we give them or their successors years and years to do so. The campaign against terrorism is foundationally a contest of wills - and dare I say it, a spiritual struggle.
The real issue is whether the Western Civilization shall prevail against the last vestige of medievalism; whether the rule of men who behead their prisoners, enslave their women and deny the rights of self-determination to their own people, shall kill us and displace us, to whom the individual and individual rights are sacred and whose laws require respect for freedom of conscience, freedom of religion and whose traditions preserve freedom from fear and cruelty. In the long history of civilization, this task is to be done now.
>It is surpassingly strange when someone reductionistically posts a >supposed single explanation of a widely divergent phenomenon such as war, >and yet has the temerity and unmitigated gall to tell others that do not >hold to their explanatory meme (not even a memeplex, for this requires >multiple memes) that THEY are the float-on-the-shallow-foam simplistic ones.
Not just your political memes/schemes/memeplexes but *all* of them. In this case memes are in the service of the damn genes and the psychological traits they build into people. If conditions are right you get a meme that seems to "cause" the war. That's the wrong way to think about it. The meme (whatever it is) arose because of underlying economic factors.
>If such a population-pressure-exigency-to-make-war mechanism kicks in, it >is not memetic, but genetic.
You didn't read it I see. Try again. Seeing only one element of a ratio will lead you wildly astray.
>Thus it can be either exacerbated or dampened, or perhaps even overridden, >by other, more memtic factors, such as ideology.
Please provide an example where the income per capita (looming privation) situation or being attacked did *not* switch on war mode. (I know of one.)
>It is in the spirit of proferring an example that is grasping towards this >deeper, more complex, subtle and nuanced understanding, which unlike >yours, is not so oversimplified that it fails the Occam's Razor corollary >of explaining all the relevant phenomena,
Ok what does it miss?
>that I post the following essay.
This article presents *no* unifying theory at all. If I am wrong here, please point me to it.
Keith Henson
>The war of ultimates >Religious war is back in full force >by Donald Sensing >http://www.donaldsensing.com/2004/06/war-of-ultimates.html > >There have been several, though not a lot, of causes of war in history. >Some theorists have said that all wars' causes really devolve down to the >one and same cause, "population pressure" in the words of Robert Heinlein >or "resource intensification and depletion" in the work of anthropologist >Marvin Harris, which is another way of saying the same thing.
Recursive memes are caused by economic shifts which were, in turn, caused by memes which were caused by a war which was caused by memes which were caused by people's psychology which was caused by their genetics which were modified by social structures which were formed by memes which came out of a fear of rats which was caused by the plague which was caused by the meme of unsanitary living in close proximity which was caused by cities which arose from memes.
Which came first, the idea or the man?
Before you answer, remember that bacteria communicate with each other.
At some point you realize that cause/effect logic is *useless* for analyzing these sorts of structures.
Memes are out there. IMHO, an analysis of them is best done with chaos and nonlinear systems theory. -----Original Message----- From: Keith Henson <hkhenson@rogers.com> Date: Thu, 29 Jul 2004 04:21:47 To:virus@lucifer.com Subject: Re: virus: Kerry Iraq foam.
At 12:01 AM 29/07/04 -0600, you wrote:
>It is surpassingly strange when someone reductionistically posts a >supposed single explanation of a widely divergent phenomenon such as war, >and yet has the temerity and unmitigated gall to tell others that do not >hold to their explanatory meme (not even a memeplex, for this requires >multiple memes) that THEY are the float-on-the-shallow-foam simplistic ones.
Not just your political memes/schemes/memeplexes but *all* of them. In this case memes are in the service of the damn genes and the psychological traits they build into people. If conditions are right you get a meme that seems to "cause" the war. That's the wrong way to think about it. The meme (whatever it is) arose because of underlying economic factors.
>If such a population-pressure-exigency-to-make-war mechanism kicks in, it >is not memetic, but genetic.
You didn't read it I see. Try again. Seeing only one element of a ratio will lead you wildly astray.
>Thus it can be either exacerbated or dampened, or perhaps even overridden, >by other, more memtic factors, such as ideology.
Please provide an example where the income per capita (looming privation) situation or being attacked did *not* switch on war mode. (I know of one.)
>It is in the spirit of proferring an example that is grasping towards this >deeper, more complex, subtle and nuanced understanding, which unlike >yours, is not so oversimplified that it fails the Occam's Razor corollary >of explaining all the relevant phenomena,
Ok what does it miss?
>that I post the following essay.
This article presents *no* unifying theory at all. If I am wrong here, please point me to it.
Keith Henson
>The war of ultimates >Religious war is back in full force >by Donald Sensing >http://www.donaldsensing.com/2004/06/war-of-ultimates.html > >There have been several, though not a lot, of causes of war in history. >Some theorists have said that all wars' causes really devolve down to the >one and same cause, "population pressure" in the words of Robert Heinlein >or "resource intensification and depletion" in the work of anthropologist >Marvin Harris, which is another way of saying the same thing.
It makes some explanatory sense, as a 'just so' story, that a genetic mechanism such as Keith refers to should exist, although there is no genetic proof of such a mechanism. However, taken alone, it does not even approach explaining the human history of both engagement in warfare and its avoidance. Religions and ideologies have most likely played a critical role in modifying any such basic tendencies that might exist, both to dampen and to exacerbate them. In ancient Judaism, lands were conquered from weaker tribes even when the Jews did not suffer privation; in fact, it was in their interest to attack when they were strongest. Of course, Yahweh affirmed that they did indeeed deserve, and were divinely promised, the lands they conquered. In early Christianity, the emphasis was placed upon passive resistance against an adversary of overwhelming strength (the Romans), and work for religious conversion from within. This strategy succeeded, while the still-militant Jews suffered the great Masada defeat. Once the Christian religion was wedded to the Roman Empire, however, the powerful composite entity found it in their interest to expand their sphere of control even when it was not economically necessary to do so. Early Islam (the Medinan passages, written when Mohammed's tribe was weak) was characterized by conciliatory and compromising language, while the later Meccan passages, written from a position of strength, put forward the convert-enslave-or-kill ideology that typifies the mindset of contemporary Islamofascist terrorists. BTW, in Islamic theology, the later, more militant Meccan passages supersede the earlier, more pacifist ones. In these cases, it seems to be the strong that attack the weak, rather than the vice-versa situation that would be entailed were Keith's schema the end-all and be-all of the matter. He would also have to explain why the Mormons of Nauvoo, Illinois trekked to the wilderness to build Salt Lake City rather than immolate themselves for the sake of perpetrating their womens' genes via subsequent impregnation by thir victorious attackers. My explanation is that they wished to remain cleaved to their ideology, and that to do so meant more to them than any genetically motivated exigency. Some religions, such as Jainism, the Quakers and the Bah'ai faith, eschew resistance to attack regardless of their relative weakness or strength vis-a-vis potential adversaries, and maintain that stance even in the face of deadly attacks; Islamofascism, however, will attack its enemies regardless of its strength or weakness, or theirs, and its enemies are not defined by the privation situation of the Islamofasacists (the 19 terror flyers were upper-middle-class, Zawahiri and Rantisi were a physician, and Bin Laden was worth a quarter-billion), but by the fact that all who are not Islamofasists themselves are considered by Islamofascism to be their enemies. Clearly, Keith notwithstanding, there is a double tier operating, involving both memetic AND genetic elements, rather than a single simple unifying principle (and in fact Donald sensing was hinting at this alternative, although he did not explicitly state it), and while sometimes these two components can cooperate, at other times they can be in conflict, and, when they ARE in conflict and the choice for a particular culturally unified tribe is between attacking or not attacking a neighboring tribe, only by looking at the strength of the specific ideology involved and the degree to which it holds its acolytes in memetic thrall can one ascertain whether, when such conflict occurs, the genetic urge or the memetic mandate will win out.
Joe, on a meta level I object to your snipping the entire post without even an indication you did so.
> It makes some explanatory sense, as a 'just so' story, that a > genetic mechanism such as Keith refers to should exist, although there is > no genetic proof of such a mechanism.
There is no "genetic proof" we have eyes.
>However, taken alone, it does not even approach explaining the human >history of both engagement in warfare and its avoidance.
It is a strongly supported theory. Find me counter examples. There is one and I have mentioned it.
> Religions and ideologies have most likely played a critical role in > modifying any such basic tendencies that might exist, both to dampen and > to exacerbate them. > In ancient Judaism, lands were conquered from weaker tribes even > when the Jews did not suffer privation;
Privation isn't the environmental condition that switches on war. I have used the term "looming" or "anticipated" privation. When you had rapid population growth and relatively fixed income (food supplies) the mechanism was switched on much of the time.
>in fact, it was in their interest to attack when they were strongest.
Agreed, certainly before being weakened by hunger. Tribes in the hunter gatherer stage who waited that long were defeated or starved.
>Of course, Yahweh affirmed that they did indeeed deserve, and were >divinely promised, the lands they conquered.
Ah . . . . The way you put this makes it seem you are a believer in this stuff. Are you?
>In early Christianity, the emphasis was placed upon passive resistance >against an adversary of overwhelming strength (the Romans), and work for >religious conversion from within. This strategy succeeded, while the >still-militant Jews suffered the great Masada defeat.
Defeat yeah, but *great defeat*? There were only about a thousand Zealots there and the psychological damage to the Romans was considerable.
>Once the Christian religion was wedded to the Roman Empire, however, the >powerful composite entity found it in their interest to expand their >sphere of control even when it was not economically necessary to do so. > Early Islam (the Medinan passages, written when Mohammed's tribe was > weak) was characterized by conciliatory and compromising language, while > the later Meccan passages, written from a position of strength, put > forward the convert-enslave-or-kill ideology that typifies the mindset of > contemporary Islamofascist terrorists. BTW, in Islamic theology, the > later, more militant Meccan passages supersede the earlier, more pacifist > ones. > In these cases, it seems to be the strong that attack the weak, > rather than the vice-versa situation that would be entailed were Keith's > schema the end-all and be-all of the matter. He would also have to > explain why the Mormons of Nauvoo, Illinois trekked to the wilderness to > build Salt Lake City rather than immolate themselves for the sake of > perpetrating their womens' genes via subsequent impregnation by thir > victorious attackers. My explanation is that they wished to remain > cleaved to their ideology, and that to do so meant more to them than any > genetically motivated exigency. > Some religions, such as Jainism, the Quakers and the Bah'ai faith, > eschew resistance to attack regardless of their relative weakness or > strength vis-a-vis potential adversaries, and maintain that stance even > in the face of deadly attacks; Islamofascism, however, will attack its > enemies regardless of its strength or weakness, or theirs, and its > enemies are not defined by the privation situation of the Islamofasacists > (the 19 terror flyers were upper-middle-class, Zawahiri and Rantisi were > a physician, and Bin Laden was worth a quarter-billion), but by the fact > that all who are not Islamofasists themselves are considered by > Islamofascism to be their enemies.
The underlying psychological mechanism is a relic from the stone age. The mechanism is there and will be activated by environmental conditions "close enough" to the stone age conditions. Falling income per capita is certainly the problem in much of the Islamic world, particularly in Saudi Arabia. Under these circumstances *some* meme would "justify" attacking neighbors. The particular meme is not important to this analysis.
> Clearly, Keith notwithstanding, there is a double tier operating, > involving both memetic AND genetic elements, rather than a single simple > unifying principle (and in fact Donald sensing was hinting at this > alternative, although he did not explicitly state it), and while > sometimes these two components can cooperate, at other times they can be > in conflict, and, when they ARE in conflict and the choice for a > particular culturally unified tribe is between attacking or not attacking > a neighboring tribe, only by looking at the strength of the specific > ideology involved and the degree to which it holds its acolytes in > memetic thrall can one ascertain whether, when such conflict occurs, the > genetic urge or the memetic mandate will win out.
I really doubt it. There certainly is feedback between the levels for example the Islamic memes of keeping the women uneducated and closely controlled makes the low birthrate needed for rising income per capita that would shut off war/social disruption mode extremely hard to reach. But when the psychological mechanisms leading through the propagation of xenophobic memes to war is activated, war or related social disruptions are going to occur.