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hkhenson@rogers...
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Re: virus: Kerry Iraq foam.
« on: 2004-07-29 00:53:42 »
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Joe, you are playing in the political foam on the surface of the ocean
without even getting your feet wet in the depths.

For example, the memes of Islamic Jehad have been around for a *long*
time.  Why didn't we get someone doing OBL's act back in the 50s?

The reason for terrorism/war now and not 50 years ago is extremely
simple:  Population growth in excess of economic growth.

Declining income per capita sets off "looming" or incipient privation
detectors.  When we all lived as hunter gatherers, that was the signal that
turned up the gain on xenophobic memes.  When the warriors were psyched up
and their rational thinking impaired enough, they marched off to glory or
death.

The other way for a tribe to enter the impaired thinking war mode was for
them to be attacked.  Then they fought back in a fury and either won
(usually taking the defeated tribe's women) or they died in which case the
attackers took their women.

Alas it is not politically correct for a modern tribe (nation) to kill all
the males of an attacking tribe (nation) even if it *would* greatly
simplify things *and* improve the income per capita ratio.

The western world has segwayed (through times of great pain) from tribal
days into conditions far outside the environment of our evolution.  As E.O.
Wilson put it, we are incredible lucky that under conditions of high income
women have kids at replacement level or below.  This leaves the western
world with rising income per capita--at least until the oil runs out.

But even a rich tribe will go into war mode (that is stupid-irrational)
when attacked.  That's what OBL did to the US.  Under those circumstances
it was possible to lead the US population into supporting a war of
retaliation against Iraq.  Stupid target, but my point is that war mode
*is* stupid mode.  Otherwise the warriors would have stayed home and
starved when bad times came along.

Of course, the effect of attacking Iraq was to put *them* into war
mode.  The poor (central) planning to get the Iraq economy going didn't
work (why am I not surprised that central economy planning didn't
work?).  So besides being attacked we now have "looming privation" to keep
the Iraq tribe in war mode.

Given these insights, what policy do they suggest?

Ideally, you would put shoes on the Islamic women (metaphor for women
having power).  That happened in Northern Ireland.  About 30 years ago the
birth rate there fell to about half of what it had been over a period of a
few years.  (Figuring out why would be an interesting project.  It probably
had roots ten or more years previous when the women who were going to limit
families were growing up.)  Eventually economic growth outpaced population
growth resulting in rising income per capita.  *That's* what took the steam
out of the IRA.

Unfortunately 30 years is way beyond the horizons of politicians.  Even
without the time problem, the current administration isn't likely to
endorse anything as radical as empowering Islamic women.

The next policy it suggests is to cut funding for containing SARS, or
reactivate smallpox or the new bird flu and let disease reduce the
population.  That would only work to reduce the social pressures for wars
till the population built back up, so it's hardly a long term solution.

Finally, we could push hard on advanced technology, particularly
nanotechnology.  Nanotech has the potential to raise income much faster
than population so the psychological mechanisms leading to war should shut off.

Everything else, OBL, Bush, Moore, Kerry it's all foam.  The deep and long
evolved psychological mechanism from the stone age are really in control of
our joint destiny.

*  *  *  *  *

Even with these insights, I see no way out for Iraq that will take less
than a generation--like happened in Lebanon.  After something close to 30
years of declining per capita income when it did finally improve a little,
war mode switched off.  Oddly enough, staying there and keeping a low
profile might be the best we can do.  As long as US troops are there,
Islamic war/terrorism will be directed at them rather than coming to North
America.  That's not going to be easy to explain to the troops, but 10 or
100 or 1000 times as many Iraqis will die in the civil disruptions.

A while ago I made a joke posting that what we needed to do was to swap out
the population of Iraq.  On the basis of theory it might not be entirely a
joke.  That would switch off war mode because coming to the US even in such
numbers would improve their per capita income.  And the US citizens that
replaced them would be in a place they could and would make a booming
economy.  Of course it doesn't deal with income per capita problems in the
rest of the Islamic world.

If you want blame liberals, be my guest.  You can make a case for blaming
everyone who has talked about a bleak future, and that's certainly a
liberal theme.

Keith Henson

PS.  Things were *much* less complicated in the day of Genghis Khan.  We
can see how *he* dealt with captured populations by the fact that some 16
million men in central Asia share his Y chromosome.

If you don't care for Bush, be thankful this is no longer in style.  :-)

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Re: virus: Kerry Iraq foam.
« Reply #1 on: 2004-07-29 02:01:12 »
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Re: virus: Kerry Iraq foam.
« Reply #2 on: 2004-07-29 04:21:47 »
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At 12:01 AM 29/07/04 -0600, you wrote:

>It is surpassingly strange when someone reductionistically posts a
>supposed single explanation of a widely divergent phenomenon such as war,
>and yet has the temerity and unmitigated gall to tell others that do not
>hold to their explanatory meme (not even a memeplex, for this requires
>multiple memes) that THEY are the float-on-the-shallow-foam simplistic ones.

Not just your political memes/schemes/memeplexes but *all* of them.  In
this case memes are in the service of the damn genes and the psychological
traits they build into people.  If conditions are right you get a meme that
seems to "cause" the war.  That's the wrong way to think about it.  The
meme (whatever it is) arose because of underlying economic factors.

>If such a population-pressure-exigency-to-make-war mechanism kicks in, it
>is not memetic, but genetic.

You didn't read it I see.  Try again.  Seeing only one element of a ratio
will lead you wildly astray.

>Thus it can be either exacerbated or dampened, or perhaps even overridden,
>by other, more memtic factors, such as ideology.

Please provide an example where the income per capita (looming privation)
situation or being attacked did *not* switch on war mode.  (I know of one.)

>It is in the spirit of proferring an example that is grasping towards this
>deeper, more complex, subtle  and nuanced understanding, which unlike
>yours, is not so oversimplified that it fails the Occam's Razor corollary
>of explaining all the relevant phenomena,

Ok what does it miss?

>that I post the following essay.

This article presents *no* unifying theory at all.  If I am wrong here,
please point me to it.

Keith Henson

>The war of ultimates
>Religious war is back in full force
>by Donald Sensing
>http://www.donaldsensing.com/2004/06/war-of-ultimates.html
>
>There have been several, though not a lot, of causes of war in history.
>Some theorists have said that all wars' causes really devolve down to the
>one and same cause, "population pressure" in the words of Robert Heinlein
>or "resource intensification and depletion" in the work of anthropologist
>Marvin Harris, which is another way of saying the same thing.

snip


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Re: virus: Kerry Iraq foam.
« Reply #3 on: 2004-07-30 11:02:06 »
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Recursive memes are caused by economic shifts which were, in turn,  caused by memes which were caused by a war which was caused by memes which were caused by people's psychology which was caused by their genetics which were modified by social structures which were formed by memes which came out of a fear of rats which was caused by the plague which was caused by the meme of unsanitary living in close proximity which was caused by cities which arose from memes.

Which came first, the idea or the man?

Before you answer, remember that bacteria communicate with each other.

At some point you realize that cause/effect logic is *useless* for analyzing these sorts of structures.

Memes are out there.  IMHO, an analysis of them is best done with chaos and nonlinear systems theory.
-----Original Message-----
From: Keith Henson <hkhenson@rogers.com>
Date: Thu, 29 Jul 2004 04:21:47
To:virus@lucifer.com
Subject: Re: virus: Kerry Iraq foam.

At 12:01 AM 29/07/04 -0600, you wrote:

>It is surpassingly strange when someone reductionistically posts a
>supposed single explanation of a widely divergent phenomenon such as war,
>and yet has the temerity and unmitigated gall to tell others that do not
>hold to their explanatory meme (not even a memeplex, for this requires
>multiple memes) that THEY are the float-on-the-shallow-foam simplistic ones.

Not just your political memes/schemes/memeplexes but *all* of them.  In
this case memes are in the service of the damn genes and the psychological
traits they build into people.  If conditions are right you get a meme that
seems to "cause" the war.  That's the wrong way to think about it.  The
meme (whatever it is) arose because of underlying economic factors.

>If such a population-pressure-exigency-to-make-war mechanism kicks in, it
>is not memetic, but genetic.

You didn't read it I see.  Try again.  Seeing only one element of a ratio
will lead you wildly astray.

>Thus it can be either exacerbated or dampened, or perhaps even overridden,
>by other, more memtic factors, such as ideology.

Please provide an example where the income per capita (looming privation)
situation or being attacked did *not* switch on war mode.  (I know of one.)

>It is in the spirit of proferring an example that is grasping towards this
>deeper, more complex, subtle  and nuanced understanding, which unlike
>yours, is not so oversimplified that it fails the Occam's Razor corollary
>of explaining all the relevant phenomena,

Ok what does it miss?

>that I post the following essay.

This article presents *no* unifying theory at all.  If I am wrong here,
please point me to it.

Keith Henson

>The war of ultimates
>Religious war is back in full force
>by Donald Sensing
>http://www.donaldsensing.com/2004/06/war-of-ultimates.html
>
>There have been several, though not a lot, of causes of war in history.
>Some theorists have said that all wars' causes really devolve down to the
>one and same cause, "population pressure" in the words of Robert Heinlein
>or "resource intensification and depletion" in the work of anthropologist
>Marvin Harris, which is another way of saying the same thing.

snip


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First, read Bruce Sterling's "Distraction", and then read http://electionmethods.org.
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Re: virus: Kerry Iraq foam.
« Reply #4 on: 2004-08-01 19:40:18 »
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Re: virus: Kerry Iraq foam.
« Reply #5 on: 2004-08-01 22:21:56 »
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At 05:40 PM 01/08/04 -0600, Joe wrote:

Joe, on a meta level I object to your snipping the entire post without even
an indication you did so.

>      It makes some explanatory sense, as a 'just so' story, that a
> genetic mechanism such as Keith refers to should exist, although there is
> no genetic proof of such a mechanism.

There is no "genetic proof" we have eyes.

>However, taken alone, it does not even approach explaining the human
>history of both engagement in warfare and its avoidance.

It is a strongly supported theory.  Find me counter examples.  There is one
and I have mentioned it.

>  Religions and ideologies have most likely played a critical role in
> modifying any such basic tendencies that might exist, both to dampen and
> to exacerbate them.
>      In ancient Judaism, lands were conquered from weaker tribes even
> when the Jews did not suffer privation;

Privation isn't the environmental condition that switches on war.  I have
used the term "looming" or "anticipated" privation.  When you had rapid
population growth and relatively fixed income (food supplies) the mechanism
was switched on much of the time.

>in fact, it was in their interest to attack when they were strongest.

Agreed, certainly before being weakened by hunger.  Tribes in the hunter
gatherer stage who waited that long were defeated or starved.

>Of course, Yahweh affirmed that they did indeeed deserve, and were
>divinely promised, the lands they conquered.

Ah . . . . The way you put this makes it seem you are a believer in this
stuff.  Are you?

>In early Christianity, the emphasis was placed upon passive resistance
>against an adversary of overwhelming strength (the Romans), and work for
>religious conversion from within.  This strategy succeeded, while the
>still-militant Jews suffered the great Masada defeat.

Defeat yeah, but *great defeat*?  There were only about a thousand Zealots
there and the psychological damage to the Romans was considerable.

>Once the Christian religion was wedded to the Roman Empire, however, the
>powerful composite entity found it in their interest to expand their
>sphere of control even when it was not economically necessary to do so.
>      Early Islam (the Medinan passages, written when Mohammed's tribe was
> weak) was characterized by conciliatory and compromising language, while
> the later Meccan passages, written from a position of strength, put
> forward the convert-enslave-or-kill ideology that typifies the mindset of
> contemporary Islamofascist terrorists.  BTW, in Islamic theology, the
> later, more militant Meccan passages supersede the earlier, more pacifist
> ones.
>      In these cases, it seems to be the strong that attack the weak,
> rather than the vice-versa situation that would be entailed were Keith's
> schema the end-all and be-all of the matter.  He would also have to
> explain why the Mormons of Nauvoo, Illinois trekked to the wilderness to
> build Salt Lake City rather than immolate themselves for the sake of
> perpetrating their womens' genes via subsequent impregnation by thir
> victorious attackers.  My explanation is that they wished to remain
> cleaved to their ideology, and that to do so meant more to them than any
> genetically motivated exigency.
>      Some religions, such as Jainism, the Quakers and the Bah'ai faith,
> eschew resistance to attack regardless of their relative weakness or
> strength vis-a-vis potential adversaries, and maintain that stance even
> in the face of deadly attacks; Islamofascism, however, will attack its
> enemies regardless of its strength or weakness, or theirs, and its
> enemies are not defined by the privation situation of the Islamofasacists
> (the 19 terror flyers were upper-middle-class, Zawahiri and Rantisi were
> a physician,  and Bin Laden was worth a quarter-billion), but by the fact
> that all who are not Islamofasists themselves are considered by
> Islamofascism to be their enemies.

The underlying psychological mechanism is a relic from the stone age.  The
mechanism is there and will be activated by environmental conditions "close
enough" to the stone age conditions.  Falling income per capita is
certainly the problem in much of the Islamic world, particularly in Saudi
Arabia.  Under these circumstances *some* meme would "justify" attacking
neighbors.  The particular meme is not important to this analysis.

>      Clearly, Keith notwithstanding, there is a double tier operating,
> involving both memetic AND genetic elements, rather than a single simple
> unifying principle (and in fact Donald sensing was hinting at this
> alternative, although he did not explicitly state it), and while
> sometimes these two components can cooperate, at other times they can be
> in conflict, and, when they ARE in conflict and the choice for a
> particular culturally unified tribe is between attacking or not attacking
> a neighboring tribe, only by looking at the strength of the specific
> ideology involved and the degree to which it holds its acolytes in
> memetic thrall can one ascertain whether, when such conflict occurs, the
> genetic urge or the memetic mandate will win out.

I really doubt it.  There certainly is feedback between the levels for
example the Islamic memes of keeping the women uneducated and closely
controlled makes the low birthrate needed for rising income per capita that
would shut off war/social disruption mode extremely hard to reach.  But
when the psychological mechanisms leading through the propagation of
xenophobic memes to war is activated, war or related social disruptions are
going to occur.


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