From: David Lucifer (david@lucifer.com)
Date: Mon Jan 19 2004 - 20:26:58 MST
[Eva]
I am concerned that this formulation could encourage a common misunderstanding of probability. Here is an example of what I mean, drawn from a real person's claim I once encountered. I might be hit by car when I next cross the street. There are two options: I will be hit, and I won't be hit. Counting these as two possible futures can easily lead to the conclusion that there is a fifty percent chance of my being hit by a car next time I cross the street, which I dearly hope is not the case! Do you see a way to improve your formulation so that this misunderstanding is not encouraged?
[Lucifer]
Hmm, I hadn't considered that. One possible refinement would be:
Probability is the fraction of possible quantum futures that contain an event.
By "quantum futures" I'm referring to Hugh Everett's many worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics which can be read about here>> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Everett_many-worlds_interpretation
I'm not sure we need to invoke the maximum number of possible futures, but I suppose it can't hurt if we're trying to be rigorous here.
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