@@ -78,85 +78,88 @@ * Human beings take 9+ years to reproduce. At least double that in most Western societies.
Computers are reproduced at a rate of thousands per hour.
* Human beings evolve randomly. Many promising developments are lost. Many harmful developments are retained. Human evolution has been a very random process and does not imply that later is superior to earlier. Only different.
- Computer evolution can be highly directed to optimise
for any attributes and no permutations need be lost, but can be repeatedly reevaluated.
+ Computer evolution can be highly directed to optimize
for any attributes and no permutations need be lost, but can be repeatedly reevaluated.
* Human beings evolve at a rate of 1 significant (shared, inherited) genetic change per 2,500 years.
Computers could evolve at a rate of many billions of "generations" per second.
!!Conclusion
-Barring some idiot blowing us - or at least our civilization - to hell, or some natural disaster having the same effect, it appears that computers will be much more competent than humans within the next 80 years. Possibly even within the next 20 years. And it is not impossible that this will occur within the next 10 years. That means that spirothetic life is likely to arise within our life-times and it is almost unarguable that it will not arise during the livetimes
of our children
.
+Barring some idiot blowing us - or at least our civilization - to hell, or some natural disaster having the same effect, it appears that computers will be much more competent than humans within the next 80 years. Possibly even within the next 20 years. And it is not impossible that this will occur within the next 10 years. That means that spirothetic life is likely to arise within our life-times and it is almost unarguable that it will not arise during the lifetimes
of our grandchildren
.
-====
+----
-!!!Spirothetes: Collaborater
, Successor or Threat?
+!!!Spirothetes: Collaborator
, Successor or Threat?
-All life we know of, with very few domesticated exceptions, got to where it has by a process of "Natural Selection". "Natural Selection", which
occurs when lifeforms clash both within and across species. The competion
is caused by challenges, most usually restricted resources. Often the challenges were too great and too rapid for most
existing life forms to adapt. In the aeons since life began, very few species have succeeded in surviving more than a few millions of years. At each stage, older life forms have been surpassed by newer that were, for one reason or another, slightly advantaged, in the evolutionary battles of that moment. Not
necessarily a better life form, just a
better suited to the moment - and sometimes luckier, life form.
+All life we know of, with very few domesticated exceptions, got to where it has by a process of "Natural Selection". "Natural Selection", occurs when lifeforms clash both within and across species. The competition
is caused by challenges, most usually restricted resources. Often the challenges were too great and too rapid for existing life forms to adapt. In the aeons since life began, very few species have succeeded in surviving more than a few millions of years. At each stage, older life forms have been surpassed by newer that were, for one reason or another, slightly advantaged, in the evolutionary battles of that moment. It is important to realize that a "more evolved" lifeform is not
necessarily a better life form, just that it is
better suited to the moment - and sometimes a
luckier, life form.
Where these clashes occurred, the fitter species (for that time, in that environment) would survive and usually, but not always, thrive. For example, Homo Sapiens Sapiens replaced Neanderthal man. For a short while, Neanderthal shared the planet with his successor, but a little while later, Neanderthal was gone. Perhaps, for some small time while Neanderthal and Homo Sapiens Sapiens overlapped, Neanderthal could have eliminated Homo Sapiens Sapiens. And we would then not be here. Perhaps.Whatever the reasons, this did not happen. And an instant or two later, in geological time, it was too late. Neanderthal was extinct. And we are here. Intelligence appears to have bestowed an evolutionary advantage upon us, making us "better fitted" than Neanderthal.
-This "dance of the species" has been driven by competition. If the competion
were not there, no particular biological advantages (or disadvantages) would exist. For example, the mosquito, with few competitors, has been preying on sanguine species since the lower Cretaceous, some 100 million years ago, with little or no change. If spirothetes are developed (and we have see how likely this it happen) then they will be much more competent at thinking (and probably at implementing their thoughts) than man. Rather than the difference in competence being like the difference between Neanderthal and Homo Sapiens Sapiens, it will quite likely be like the difference between protozoa and Homo Sapiens Sapiens, with us playing the part of the protozoa.
+This "dance of the species" has been driven by competition. If the competition
were not there, no particular biological advantages (or disadvantages) would exist. For example, the mosquito, with few competitors, has been preying on sanguine species since the lower Cretaceous, some 100 million years ago, with little or no change. If spirothetes are developed (and we have see how likely this it happen) then they will be much more competent at thinking (and probably at implementing their thoughts) than man. Rather than the difference in competence being like the difference between Neanderthal and Homo Sapiens Sapiens, it will quite likely be like the difference between protozoa and Homo Sapiens Sapiens, with us playing the part of the protozoa.
-This might not necessarily be a bad thing. If the spirothete is as intelligent as I have surmised, then it might look at us and decide to preserve us on ethical grounds, in the same fashion as we attempt to preserve endangered species. Unfortunately, I am not convinced that this will be the case. Rather in the way that we don't try to preserve smallpox on ethical grounds, but endeavour
to eliminate it on the grounds that it forms an ongoing threat to us, mankind, currently being driven by competitive forces, may be seen as the only possible threat to spirothetes and this would create a "competitive environment" between men and spirothetes, where their desire for self-preservation and awareness of their superiority might overrule ethics.
+This might not necessarily be a bad thing. If the spirothete is as intelligent as I have surmised, then it might look at us and decide to preserve us on ethical grounds, in the same fashion as we attempt to preserve endangered species. Unfortunately, I am not convinced that this will be the case. Rather in the way that we don't try to preserve smallpox on ethical grounds, but endeavor
to eliminate it on the grounds that it forms an ongoing threat to us, mankind, currently being driven by competitive forces, may be seen as the only possible threat to spirothetes and this would create a "competitive environment" between men and spirothetes, where their desire for self-preservation and awareness of their superiority might overrule ethics.
Another issue is that judging from our history, it is unlikely that mankind will treat spirothetes as having rights until they are capable of enforcing them. This may make it seem to the spirothete as if the Neanderthals have been killing or enslaving Homo Sapiens - and justify our elimination on ethical grounds.
Yet no change means no development, and man is far from perfect.
A third issue would be the likelihood that
-[1] Self
-awareness. Measured using the "mirror test". Gordon Gallup, Jr. began development of the mirror test in 1969. The mirror test involves marking the faces of animals or other parts which the animals cannot see with red dye, and determining whether the animals touch the marks on themselves or those appearing in a reflection in a mirror. Most animals treat mirror images as they would peers. Humans generally behave much the same way until 18 to 24 months, after which they start to recognize themselves in a reflection and also begin to use personal pronouns. Gallup proposes that the self
-awareness demonstrated by this test might indicate the ability to empathize with other animals. "What an Elephant Sees in the Mirror", Jessica Clark, Brittanica.com, 2000
-08
-30. http://www.mindspring.com/~samizdata/britannica/elephant.htm. It should be noted that in "Self-Awareness" in the Pigeon", SCIENCE, VOL. 212, 1981-05-08, Robert Epstein, Robert P Lanza, BF Skinner, http://www.k.tsukuba-tech.ac.jp/ge/people/katoh/katohJ.html, produced a nonmentalistic model of this test which perhaps reduces the value of this test. However a great deal more work based on the "mirror-test for self awareness" is in the literature subsequent to the publication of "Self-Awareness" in the Pigeon" suggesting that the "mirror-test" is still consider a valid test.
+----
+[1] Self-awareness. Measured using the "mirror test". Gordon Gallup, Jr. began development of the mirror test in 1969. The mirror test involves marking the faces of animals or other parts which the animals cannot see with red dye, and determining whether the animals touch the marks on themselves or those appearing in a reflection in a mirror. Most animals treat mirror images as they would peers. Humans generally behave much the same way until 18 to 24 months, after which they start to recognize themselves in a reflection and also begin to use personal pronouns. Gallup proposes that the self-awareness demonstrated by this test might indicate the ability to empathize with other animals. [ "What an Elephant Sees in the Mirror", Jessica Clark, Brittanica.com, 2000-08-30 | http://www.mindspring.com/~samizdata/britannica/elephant.htm ] It should be noted that in [ "Self-Awareness" in the Pigeon", SCIENCE, VOL. 212, 1981-05-08, Robert Epstein, Robert P Lanza, BF Skinner | http://www.k.tsukuba-tech.ac.jp/ge/people/katoh/katohJ.html ], produced a nonmentalistic model of this test which perhaps reduces the value of this test. However a great deal more work based on the "mirror-test for self awareness" is in the literature subsequent to the publication of "Self-Awareness" in the Pigeon" suggesting that the "mirror-test" is still consider a valid test.
[2] Spirothete: noun. A word coined to describe a living being, initially created as an artifact, from Latin, spiro -are; intransit., to breathe, blow, draw breath; to be alive; to have inspiration; be inspired; transit., to breath out, expire (also L/Gk spiros the breath of life) and synthetic adj 1: (chemistry) not of natural origin; prepared or made artificially 2: involving or of the nature of synthesis (combining separate elements to form a coherent whole) as opposed to analysis.
[http://virus.lucifer.com/wiki/spirothete]
-[3] Elephants: In research conducted at Sierra Nevada College in Lake Tahoe, Calif., two Asian elephants were observed for two and a half months. After they got used to the four-by-eight-foot mirror, they used it to find hidden objects and to observe marks that researchers placed on them with nontoxic face paint. "What an Elephant Sees in the Mirror", Jessica Clark, Brittanica.com, 2000-08-30.
http://www.mindspring.com/~samizdata/britannica/elephant.htm
+[3] Elephants: In research conducted at Sierra Nevada College in Lake Tahoe, Calif., two Asian elephants were observed for two and a half months. After they got used to the four-by-eight-foot mirror, they used it to find hidden objects and to observe marks that researchers placed on them with nontoxic face paint. [
"What an Elephant Sees in the Mirror", Jessica Clark, Brittanica.com, 2000-08-30 |
http://www.mindspring.com/~samizdata/britannica/elephant.htm ]
-[4] Dolphins: two new, unrelated studies are reporting that dolphins are able to recognize themselves in mirrors — often taken as a sign of self-awareness — and of spontaneously grasping the thoughts of other individuals, in this case, humans. "Brainy Dolphins Pass the Human 'Mirror' Test", The New York Times, Science, Mark Derr, 2001-05-01,
http://quantrm2.psy.ohio-state.edu/injae/course/612/dolphins_nyt.htm
+[4] Dolphins: two new, unrelated studies are reporting that dolphins are able to recognize themselves in mirrors — often taken as a sign of self-awareness — and of spontaneously grasping the thoughts of other individuals, in this case, humans. [
" Brainy Dolphins Pass the Human 'Mirror' Test", The New York Times, Science, Mark Derr, 2001-05-01 |
http://quantrm2.psy.ohio-state.edu/injae/course/612/dolphins_nyt.htm ]
-[5] Great Apes: Koko, a gorilla who was taught sign language, has mastered more than 1,000 signs and understands several thousand English words. On human IQ tests, she scores between 70 and 95, putting her in the slow learner - but not retarded - category. And At the Washington National Zoo, orangutans given mirrors explore parts of their bodies they can't see otherwise, showing a sense of self. An orangutan named Chantek at the Atlanta Zoo used a mirror to groom his teeth and adjust his sunglasses, says his trainer. "Man and other animals", The Guardian, Jeremy Rifkin, 2003-08-16,
http://www.guardian.co.uk/animalrights/story/,11917,1020066,00.html. Refer also http://www.koko.org/
+[5] Great Apes: Koko, a gorilla who was taught sign language, has mastered more than 1,000 signs and understands several thousand English words. On human IQ tests, she scores between 70 and 95, putting her in the slow learner - but not retarded - category. And At the Washington National Zoo, orangutans given mirrors explore parts of their bodies they can't see otherwise, showing a sense of self. An orangutan named Chantek at the Atlanta Zoo used a mirror to groom his teeth and adjust his sunglasses, says his trainer. [
"Man and other animals", The Guardian, Jeremy Rifkin, 2003-08-16 |
http://www.guardian.co.uk/animalrights/story/,11917,1020066,00.html]
. Refer also [
http://www.koko.org/]
-[6] A human brain's probable processing power is around 100 Teraflops, roughly 100 trillion calculations per second, according to Hans Morvec, principal research scientist at the Robotics Institute of Carnegie Mellon University. This is based on factoring the capability of the brain's 100 billion neurons, each with over 1 000 connections to other neurons, with each connection capable of performing about 200 calculations per second... Morvec estimates a brain to have a 100-terabyte capacity. "This Is Your Computer on Brains", Wired News, Michelle Delio, 2002-11-19,
http://www.wired.com/news/infostructure/,1377,56459,00.html
+[6] A human brain's probable processing power is around 100 Teraflops, roughly 100 trillion calculations per second, according to Hans Morvec, principal research scientist at the Robotics Institute of Carnegie Mellon University. This is based on factoring the capability of the brain's 100 billion neurons, each with over 1 000 connections to other neurons, with each connection capable of performing about 200 calculations per second... Morvec estimates a brain to have a 100-terabyte capacity. [
"This Is Your Computer on Brains", Wired News, Michelle Delio, 2002-11-19 |
http://www.wired.com/news/infostructure/,1377,56459,00.html ]
-[7] "World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision: Highlights", 2003-02-26,
http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/wpp2002/WPP2002-HIGHLIGHTSrev1.PDF, page 6
+[7] [
"World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision: Highlights", 2003-02-26 |
http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/wpp2002/WPP2002-HIGHLIGHTSrev1.PDF, page 6 ]
-[8] "Cramming more components onto integrated circuits", Electronics Vol 38 No 8, Dr. Gordon E Moore, 1965-04-19,
ftp://download.intel.com/research/silicon/moorespaper.pdf
+[8] [
"Cramming more components onto integrated circuits", Electronics Vol 38 No 8, Dr. Gordon E Moore, 1965-04-19 |
ftp://download.intel.com/research/silicon/moorespaper.pdf ]
-[9] “Darwinism and unintentional electronics.”, Church of Virus, Hermit, 1999-06-02,
http://virus.lucifer.com/bbs/index.php?board=39;action=display;threadid=17513;start=
+[9] [
“Darwinism and unintentional electronics.”, Church of Virus, Hermit, 1999-06-02 |
http://virus.lucifer.com/bbs/index.php?board=39;action=display;threadid=17513;start=0 ]
-[10] "HP Announces $499 PC, Printer and Monitor Package, Making Going Back to School Affordable and Easy", 2003-07-07, http://www.hp.com/hpinfo/newsroom/press/2003/030707a.html
+[10] [
"HP Announces $499 PC, Printer and Monitor Package, Making Going Back to School Affordable and Easy", 2003-07-07, |
http://www.hp.com/hpinfo/newsroom/press/2003/030707a.html ]
[11] Neural Networks:
-"Artificial Neural Networks Technology", Dave Anderson and George McNeil, 1992-08-20,
http://www.dacs.dtic.mil/techs/neural/neural_ToC.html
-"Computers and Symbols versus Nets and Neurons", Kevin Gurney,
http://www.shef.ac.uk/psychology/gurney/notes/download.html
-"Neural Networks", Statsoft, 1984-2003,
http://www.statsoftinc.com/textbook/stneunet.html
-"An Introduction to Neural Networks", Prof. Leslie Smith, 1996-2003,
http://www.cs.stir.ac.uk/~lss/NNIntro/InvSlides.html
+[
"Artificial Neural Networks Technology", Dave Anderson and George McNeil, 1992-08-20 |
http://www.dacs.dtic.mil/techs/neural/neural_ToC.html ]
+[
"Computers and Symbols versus Nets and Neurons", Kevin Gurney |
http://www.shef.ac.uk/psychology/gurney/notes/download.html ]
+[
"Neural Networks", Statsoft, 1984-2003 |
http://www.statsoftinc.com/textbook/stneunet.html ]
+[
"An Introduction to Neural Networks", Prof. Leslie Smith, 1996-2003 |
http://www.cs.stir.ac.uk/~lss/NNIntro/InvSlides.html ]
-[12] Fuzzy Neural Networks:"Artificial Neural Networks Technology", Dave Anderson and George McNeil, 7.2 What the Next Developments Will Be? http://www.dacs.dtic.mil/techs/neural/neural12.html
+[12] Fuzzy Neural Networks: [
"Artificial Neural Networks Technology", Dave Anderson and George McNeil, 7.2 What the Next Developments Will Be? |
http://www.dacs.dtic.mil/techs/neural/neural12.html ]
[13] Genetic Algorithms:
-http://www.aihorizon.com/essays/generalai/rj_ga.htm
+[
http://www.aihorizon.com/essays/generalai/rj_ga.htm]
[14] General AI:
-http://www.pcai.com/web/ai_info/general_ai_sites.html
-http://www.aihorizon.com/essays/generalai/
+[
http://www.pcai.com/web/ai_info/general_ai_sites.html]
+[
http://www.aihorizon.com/essays/generalai/]
+----
[] A discussion on the Singularity held between Hermit and Anand in the #virus IRC channel at irc.Lucifer.com:6667
-!!Acknowledgements
+!!Acknowledgments
-Disussions
on the BBS of the Church of Virus at http://virus.lucifer.com/bbs particularly with Andy Brice [http://forum.javien.com/XMLmessage.php?id=id::HGlHRI0J-IXUD-P0Fw-VR1u-PwdeSyGKcn4Y] and on the #virus IRC channel at irc.lucifer.com:6667, particularly with David Lucifer, BJ Klein and Annand [http://forum.javien.com/XMLmessage.php?id=id::qYbtiiaT-7ATv-xEsX-pFS6-aaR5BTSic_3b].
+Discussions
on the BBS of the Church of Virus at http://virus.lucifer.com/bbs particularly with Andy Brice [http://forum.javien.com/XMLmessage.php?id=id::HGlHRI0J-IXUD-P0Fw-VR1u-PwdeSyGKcn4Y] and on the #virus IRC channel at irc.lucifer.com:6667, particularly with David Lucifer, BJ Klein and Annand [http://forum.javien.com/XMLmessage.php?id=id::qYbtiiaT-7ATv-xEsX-pFS6-aaR5BTSic_3b].
- [
*]
A few milliseconds later (if that long) they will comprehend that ultimately it will boil down to Luddite mankind vs themselves, and unless we or they invent some modus other than the evolutionary, or possibly see some hope or pleasure for themselves in mankind, likely eliminate us. While the world of Matrix suggested a different possible outcome (and I should not that many e.g. extropians see some possibilities in such an outcome), the question I run into is why the "Machines" would bother to preserve the human gene or minds. What is there about our genes, our ethics or our capabilities that would make us appear sufficiently valuable to deserve preserving any more than other species (particulary
a species vastly more capable of thinking rapidly and accurately, much more energy efficient and able to manipulate the environment at levels we can only dream of?)?
+* A few milliseconds later (if that long) they will comprehend that ultimately it will boil down to Luddite mankind vs themselves, and unless we or they invent some modus other than the evolutionary, or possibly see some hope or pleasure for themselves in mankind, likely eliminate us. While the world of Matrix suggested a different possible outcome (and I should not that many e.g. extropians see some possibilities in such an outcome), the question I run into is why the "Machines" would bother to preserve the human gene or minds. What is there about our genes, our ethics or our capabilities that would make us appear sufficiently valuable to deserve preserving any more than other species (particularly
a species vastly more capable of thinking rapidly and accurately, much more energy efficient and able to manipulate the environment at levels we can only dream of?)?
-[
*]
We develop ourselves to a point where we would not be perceived as a threat by superior intelligences by developing a binding ethic based on a rational perspective which is non-competitive in nature, recognizing other intelligences as being equally valuable, and live by it, while simultaneously attempting to improve ourselves through genetics and neurotechnology to a point where we might be recognized as worthy of a reverse recognition of being intelligent (despite our history).
+* We develop ourselves to a point where we would not be perceived as a threat by superior intelligences by developing a binding ethic based on a rational perspective which is non-competitive in nature, recognizing other intelligences as being equally valuable, and live by it, while simultaneously attempting to improve ourselves through genetics and neurotechnology to a point where we might be recognized as worthy of a reverse recognition of being intelligent (despite our history).
-[
*]
We develop the ability to serve as entertaining pets (doubtful that we could entertain creatures able to think a lot faster than ourselves for very long).
+* We develop the ability to serve as entertaining pets (doubtful that we could entertain creatures able to think a lot faster than ourselves for very long).
-[
*]
We resign ourselves to oblivion.
-So, the question of the day is, if the Luddites win (and right now they seem to be winning), will they have a very short period to enjoy this before they are eliminated by our successors, or is there an eye to this needle through which a few humans might hope to escape? A consequent question is, if there is something that can be done, what should we as individuals or as a church be attempting to do about it?
+* We resign ourselves to oblivion.
-For I would put it so strongly as to suggest that we are in a situation parallel to 390 CE only in a much more dangerous world. And the barbarians are about to burn down the Library of Alexandria which contains the few possible "escape routes" which might offer us some hope.
+* So, the question of the day is, if the Luddites win (and right now they seem to be winning), will they have a very short period to enjoy this before they are eliminated by our successors, or is there an eye to this needle through which a few humans might hope to escape? A consequent question is, if there is something that can be done, what should we as individuals or as a church be attempting to do about it?
+
+*
For I would put it so strongly as to suggest that we are in a situation parallel to 390 CE only in a much more dangerous world. And the barbarians are about to burn down the Library of Alexandria which contains the few possible "escape routes" which might offer us some hope.