>From The Mail&Guardian June 7- to 13 2002 Johannesburg.
Life in 2032
According to a UN Report, unless we change our ways, the world faces
disaster. Paul Brown reports.
The destruction of 70% of the natural world in 30 years, mass extinction
of species and the collapse of human society in many countries is
forecast in a bleak report by 1100 scientists published recently.
The Global Environment Outlook, compiled for the United Nations, charts
the environmental degradation of the past 30 years since the first world
environment conference in Stockholm in 1972 and looks forward to how the
world might look by 2032.
Unless the world changes its current "markets first approach, the
increase in building of roads, power lines, airports and other
Infrastructure will disrupt wildlife breeding patterns and wipe out
species, particularly in coastal areas where most human settlement is
concentrated. Forests continue to disappear at an alarming rate and 10%
of land on which to grow food is lost because of soil degradation.
More than half the world will be afflicted by water shortages, with 95%
of people in the Middle East facing severe problems and 65% in the rest
of Asia and the Pacific.
The Mediterranean coast will come under special pressure through urban
growth, inadequate waste water treatment, tourism and intensively farmed
crops. But the report says it need not be like that. In richer countries
water and air pollution is down, species have been restored to the wild
and forests are increasing in size.
The 450 page analysis was published on May 22 partly to shock world
leaders into taking seriously the World Summit on Sustainable
Development, to be held in Johannesburg in August.
The last preparation meeting for the conference was in Bali, Indonesia,
this week and there were doubts that the agenda reflected the urgency of
the problem.
The report paints four possible futures for the world, including the
current pattern of free trade and short term profit at the expense of
the environment, which leads to disaster.
In a second, equally dangerous scenario, security considerations
dominate with fear of terror and mass immigration into rich areas. It
involves a world split into rich and poor, with freedom of movement and
democracy restricted and rich enclaves like Europe and North America
with barriers keeping out the poor.
A third offers a strong policy based option where governments try to
protect the environment with international treaties with varying degrees
of success.
The fourth, where all decisions are based on sustainable development
rather than short time gain and greed, is the blueprint favoured by the
report.
Klaus Toepfer, the UN Environment Programme executive director, called
for concrete actions and an iron political will to change the existing
pattern. "Without the environment there can never be the kind of
development needed to secure a fair deal for this or future generations.
It would be disastrous to ignore the picture painted. He said that under
the "markets first" scenario the environment and humans did not fare
well. "The human footprint grows, inflicting increasing damage.' We now
have hundreds of declarations, agreements, guidelines and legally
binding treaties designed to address environmental problems and the
threats they pose to wildlife and human health and well being. Let us
now find the political courage and innovative financing needed to
implement these deals and steer a healthier, more prosperous course for
planet Earth!'
The key aims at the meeting in Bali, which was painted as a junket for
ministers and civil servants, were to make progress on issues such as
clean water, energy supply and food security for developing countries.
Although the report paints a dismal picture of the past 30 years, it
points to some successes for treaties. The hole in the ozone layer is at
a record size, but the repair of the damage is forecast to begin by 2032
because the use of ozone depleting chemicals is being phased out.
Toepfer said he hoped that United States President George W Bush would
come to the Johannesburg summit to pledge support for a different world,
including plans for a World Environment Organisation, and concrete
projects, such as using renewable energy to give development hope to two
billion people without electricity. There was a plan for the complete
electrification of Africa with renewable supplies. But the report says
time is short.
Land degradation, because of human activity, is already causing a crisis
in agricultural production in some areas. For example, in Iraq, owing to
bad irrigation practices, 30% of arable land has been abandoned because
of salt contamination.
A water crisis is developing across the whole of the Arab world as
ground water is pumped out faster than rain can replenish it. Seawater
is increasingly being drawn into underground freshwater supplies. For
example, in Madras, India, salt has poisoned fresh supplies about 1lkm
inland.
In Latin America and the Caribbean, home of 25% of the world's forest
cover and 178 regions of special biodiversity, the situation is already
critical in 31 of them. "Biodiversity is constantly under threat from
habitat loss, land degradation, land use change, deforestation and.
marine pollution," the report says.
Tony Juniper, director designate of Friends of the Earth, said: "This
report poses a stark choice between destructive policies based on global
market forces or embracing sustainable development.
"Meeting the needs of billions of poor people while protecting the
environment is the great challenge posed to political and industrial
leaders by this report. Delaying action is no longer an option. The
Johannesburg summit must develop the necessary change in direction."
The bad news
In 30 years 70% of the Earth's surface will be suffering severe impacts
from man's activities, destroying the natural world with roads, mining
and cities.
About 1183 species of birds, about 12% of the world's total, and 1130
species of mammals, about a quarter, are threatened with extinction.
One third of the world's fish stocks are depleted or overexploited.
Concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere could double by 2050.
The number of people affected by weather related disasters has risen
from 147 million a year to 211 million in 10 years.
There are 2,2 million more mouths to feed than in 1972 and there will be
another two billion in 30 years.
Already 40 % of the world is short of fresh water, in 30 years this will
rise to 50%. In West Asia this rises to 90%.
At least 15% of the Earth's surface is already degraded by human
activities.
Overgrazing causes 35% of soil degradation, deforestation 30%,
agriculture 27%.
More than a billion urbanites, mostly in Africa, Asia and Latin America,
live in slums. Another billion people will live in cities by 2010.
Half the world's rivers are seriously depleted and polluted. About 60%
of the 227 biggest are disrupted by dams and other engineering works.
There are four billion cases of diarrhoea causing 2,2 million deaths a
year.
Two billion people are at risk from malaria and two million die a year.
Contaminated shellfish causes an estimated 25 million cases of
infectious hepatitis annually, resulting in 25 000 deaths.
A fifth of the world's population is responsible for 90% of consumption.
Two thirds of the population, about four billion people, live on less
than $2 a day.
And the good.
The hole in the ozone layer is being repaired because of an 85%
reduction in use of harmful gasses and chemicals in 114 countries.
The number of people with improved water supplies increased from 4,1
billion to 4,9 billion in the past 10 years.
About 10% of the Earth, 12,18 million hectares, is in protected areas
like national parks, five times as much as 30 years ago.
A moratorium on commercial whaling since 1986 is allowing the species to
recover.
The amount of water extracted for public supply in Western Europe fell
by 10% in 10 years because of efficient use.
Emissions of most air pollutants in Europe have declined since the early
1980s.
Warm regards
Blunderov
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