virus: [Fwd: Y2K Domino Engine]

KMO (kmo@c-realm.com)
Tue, 15 Dec 1998 09:25:59 -0800

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Date: Tue, 15 Dec 1998 08:03:19 -0600
From: Pat Shepard <c604016@showme.missouri.edu>
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Subject: Y2K Domino Engine
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A web page to brighten your day.

My figures gave a 35% chance of collapse.

http://www.y2knewswire.com/Y2Kengine.htm

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Y2K Domino Engine

  Y2KNEWSWIRE.COM Interactive "Circle of Dominoes" engine
       
Y2K

Free, daily
Y2K e-mail
news alert.
Click here
for details.

The Y2K Interactive "Circle of Dominoes" Engine
Discover the odds using your own assumptions.

Welcome! This Y2KNEWSWIRE.COM engine gives you the opportunity to draw your own conclusions on what will happen with Y2K, based on your own assumptions. With half the Y2K people saying it's "no big deal" and the other half predicting a total collapse, isn't it nice to run your own numbers for a change?

Here's how it works:
This engine assumes the existence of dependencies between industries. For example, it assumes that the three CORE sectors are so interdependant that the failure of one would cause the near-immediate failure of the other two. These three are banking, power and telecommunications.

The engine also assumes that each of these three rely on external suppliers or conditions. For example, the power sector depends on the smooth operation of trains (to deliver coal). And trains, in turn, depend on both the smooth operation of railroad switching computers and the availability of oil. In this way, the failure of oil supplies brings down the trains which brings down the power sector.

Instructions:
First, if you haven't already read the "Circle of Dominoes" report, please read it first at: http://www.y2knewswire.com/dominoes.htm

Next, view the "dependency" chart below. Read lines indicate critical dependencies. The "impact" items affect all sectors:

odds-all.gif (37736 bytes)

Lastly, answer each question below by entering a whole number between 0 and 100. Do not enter the "%" sign. Do not enter decimals or fractions. Enter only whole numbers like "25" or "50."

Please assign a percentage chance to each of the following events occuring within 30 days of January 1, 2000:

The chance of the power sector failing as a whole due to internal Y2K compliance issues? (These can be resulting from hardware or software failures):

The chance of the banking sector failing as a whole due to internal Y2K compliance issues?

The chance of the telecommunications sector failing?

The chance of the failure of international banks causing the collapse of the entire U.S. banking system:

The chance of a cash panic causing U.S. banks to run out of cash and cease operations:

The chance of non-compliance at the Federal Reserve causing the U.S. banking system to be unable to operate:

The chance of the solar flares due to arrive around January 2, 2000, damaging the the telecommunications industry to the point where it can be said to have failed:

The chance of non-compliant satellites bringing down the telecommunications sector:

The chance of the coal mining companies not being able to run, causing a halting of coal supplies that causes the power grid to shut down:

The chance of coal mining machinery not being able to operate to a degree that would shut down the power grid:

The chance of railroad companies not being able to schedule or operate trains to the extent that coal supplies cannot be supplies to power companies and a power grid shutdown occurs:

The chance of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission ordering the shutdown of nuclear power plants and that shutdown causing the shutdown of the entire power grid:

The chance that railroad switch controlling computers would be non-compliant, causing severe disruption in the railroad switches:

The chance of railroad machinery (locomotives, repair equipment, etc.) not being compliant to an extent that would cause the trains to be unable to run:

The chance of oil supplies not being available due to turmoil or war in the Middle East:

The chance of oil supplies not being available due to non-compliant of oil tankers (or their navigation equipment):

The impact of all the listed "impact items," meaning by what percentage will the impact items make all the other items worse? For example, if power by itself has a 50% chance of failure, and the impact items worsen the power situation by 10%, that would result in a 55% chance of failure by the power sector (10% of 50 is 5, added to the original 50 to get 55). Impact items include the potential failure of the IRS, the possibility of accidental nuclear launches, the GPS failure, failure of water treatment facilities, panic, the effects of Europe and Asia, and other factors.

That's it! Click "Calculate" to see your results:

 

Copyright © 1998. All rights reserved. Disclaimer

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