Violence Declines Further in Iraq
Pentagon Report Cites Factors That Could Rekindle Attacks
By Ann Scott Tyson
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/story/2008/10/01/ST2008100100558.html?sid=ST2008100100558&s_pos=list

Violence in Iraq dropped further during the summer although security gains remain "reversible and uneven," with the main threats coming from Iranian-backed militias and the Shiite-led Iraqi government's slow integration of volunteer Sunni fighters, according to a Pentagon report released yesterday.

Potential is growing, moreover, for politically driven violence as ethnic, tribal and religious groups vie for influence in advance of provincial elections planned in coming months, according to the congressionally mandated quarterly Pentagon report on security in Iraq.

Overall, civilian deaths across Iraq declined 77 percent in the three months from June to August compared with the same period a year ago, with June recording the lowest monthly death rate on record since the war began, the report said. Sectarian killings increased slightly in July and August, but they remained 96 percent lower than for the same period in 2007, it said. For example, there were 26 ethno-sectarian deaths in Baghdad in the summer months -- in contrast to more than 1,200 in the same period last year.

Total attacks and other security incidents remained at their lowest levels since early 2004, even as the U.S.-led coalition withdrew thousands of troops. "Security incidents are now at the lowest levels in over four-and-a-half years, instilling in the Iraqi people a sense of normalcy that permits them to engage in personal, religious, and civic life without an inordinate threat of violence," the report said.

Nevertheless, the report voiced concern over several problems that could rekindle violence among competing groups and upset the recent progress on security.

One major concern is the Iraqi government's delays in reintegrating the nearly 100,000 predominantly Sunni volunteer fighters known as the Sons of Iraq into the army, police or other jobs, it said. "Integration of the SOI remains critical to providing stable security," the Pentagon report said, adding that the Sunni volunteer forces suffer from "low-level infiltration by insurgent groups," including the main Sunni insurgent group known as al-Qaeda in Iraq.

Tensions between the government and Sunni volunteers are particularly high in Diyala province, where the Sunni population is fearful that the government is using military operations ostensibly aimed at al-Qaeda in Iraq as a pretext to "arrest, intimidate, or kill moderate Sunnis and SOI groups who are otherwise interested in participating in the political processes," the report found.

Diyala, a demographically mixed Sunni and Shiite province east of Baghdad, remains one of the most violent in Iraq and one where al-Qaeda continues to conduct suicide attacks and "enjoys some freedom of movement" in mountains and rural areas, according to the report.

Iranian influence in funding, training and arming militias is "the most significant threat to long-term stability in Iraq," the report found. It said many leaders of the Iranian-backed "special groups" fled to Iran after Iraqi and U.S. military operations began last spring in strongholds such as Basra, Baghdad and Maysan province. Those operations "inflicted heavy losses" on the special groups and the Mahdi Army militia of Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, the report said, noting that one U.S. brigade killed more than 770 militia members and special-group fighters.

The report also said some Mahdi Army fighters are ignoring a call by Sadr to join a political movement and are instead forming "new, more lethal" special groups, which continue to receive Iranian aid.

"Whether recent security gains are long-term will depend, in part, on how these issues continue to develop," the report said.

The report warned that violence could increase in various localities in the run-up to provincial elections. For example, it said Sunni insurgents in Baghdad could increase attacks if the Sunni populace believes its election prospects are being "hindered" by the Iraqi government. In the western province of Anbar, fighting could escalate between militias controlled by the two main political parties, the report said.


'We Should Go Outside and Live'
Baghdad Residents, Hopeful but Wary After Drop in Violence, Gather in the Open for Holiday
By Mary Beth Sheridan
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/30/AR2008093001322.html?nav=rss_world

BAGHDAD, Sept. 30 -- Ever since the U.S.-led invasion in 2003, Um Abdullah has kept her four children inside on holidays, terrified by the bombings and kidnappings that were tearing the country apart. But on Tuesday, she set out to reclaim her former life.

"We were like in a prison at home," she said, sitting on the grass in a western Baghdad park where revelers celebrating the Muslim holiday of Eid al-Fitr were picnicking, whirling around a merry-go-round and dancing to the beat of a drum. "But now the situation is getting better -- though it's still not good."

Violence in Iraq has dropped dramatically, with attacks down 83 percent nationwide during the first three weeks of the holy month of Ramadan, compared with the same period in 2007, according to U.S. military figures.

But Baghdad residents know the bloodshed isn't over. On Sunday, five bombs blew up in the city, killing 32 people. Um Abdullah, who would not give her full name, said she was on a street where one of the car bombs exploded, but escaped injury.

"There is a kind of inner conflict," the teacher explained, describing her mix of hope and fear about venturing out. Ultimately, she decided to take the risk and bring her children, ages 5 to 13, to the park for the holiday, which marks the end of Ramadan.

"We should go outside," she declared, "and live."

The Zawra park was packed with hundreds of people like Um Abdullah, most enjoying the holiday in an open-air venue for the first time in years. Children sported pointy birthday-party-type hats and munched cotton candy. Teenage boys in T-shirts and jeans rollerbladed past women in their finest glittering head scarves.

In the park, you could almost forget the country's violence -- if it weren't for the full-body pat-down at the entrance, the Iraqi soldiers in bulletproof vests strolling near the Ferris wheel, the long coil of concertina wire around the perimeter.

The noisy park was just one sign of residents' new, wary hope. Another was at the National Theater, which had triumphantly announced that it would hold its first nighttime performance since the invasion.

But just two hours before the 5 p.m. curtain, a white Mitsubishi sedan packed with explosives blew up across the street from the theater, killing three people and blasting a hole in the pavement. Police barricaded the street, and it appeared the much-heralded cultural event was off.

And then a small miracle occurred. Theater officials asked the officers to reopen the street, and by curtain time, dozens of theatergoers had marched into the building, in defiance of the attackers.

"We cannot let the terrorists control us," said Salam Mijbil, a theater official. "This bombing is the wind of hate. We will resist this wind and not buckle."

For their Eid celebrations, a few women even went out in public in knee-length skirts or without head scarves, just as they did in the days when the government of Saddam Hussein maintained a largely secular society. With the rise of religious parties and militias in recent years, most women now cover their hair and wear long robes or skirts.

"They're not wearing the scarf because they feel safer," said Um Ali, 53, a seamstress, who had accompanied her two teenage daughters to an ice cream shop in the middle-class neighborhood of Karrada. She also declined to give her full name.

But such boldness was rare. And for many, the hope brought by the decline in violence was overshadowed by the pain and suffering they have experienced.

Abu Muhammad, 52, a journalist, brought his wife, son and nephew to Zawra park. But most of their relatives had fled Iraq in recent years because of kidnapping threats and violence. Abu Muhammad said he doesn't think it is safe enough for them to return.

"We can't feel this is Eid," he said. "It's Eid when you're with your family."