Afghanistan Update - January, 2008
John G. Krenson
http://senseofevents.blogspot.com/2008/01/afghanistan-update-january-2008.html

The Bush Administration has begun to shift some new focus to Afghanistan for fear that it has lost some of its focus there in the last year. If the Bush administration has indeed lost focus there, then it must be true most of the rest of us have as well. Since 2003 Iraq has consumed us and Afghanistan become an oft referred to “forgotten war”. So with a positive turnaround in Iraq, current events in Pakistan such as they are and the start of a new year it behooves us to look back at Afghanistan and think about what lies ahead there.

First a little - and simplistic - recap

Afghanistan, a land-locked country that is a “you can’t get there from here” kind of place, has never known true stability, peace, or prosperity. It’s best years in modern times where during its monarchy particularly between World War II and the early 70s. Then the king was overthrown in 1973 by a relative and the communists saw an opening to push for power. That happened in 1978. When this new communist regime seemed threatened the Soviets were “invited in” to prop them up.

First Jimmy Carter and then Ronald Reagan encouraged and supported mujahedeen freedom fighters from sanctuaries inside Pakistan to fight the Soviets there and Afghans fled the country in droves. The mujahedeen were successful, the Soviets fled, the refugees stayed in their camps, the west said “thanks and see ya later” and the mujahedeen groups went after each other destroying much of Kabul in the process.

Chaos reigned in the country causing Pakistan to seek some sense of stability there by supporting and building up the Taliban, a fundamentalist Islamic movement in the Pashtun southeast that eventually gained control of 95% of Afghanistan. An Islamic State was established with severe enforcement of strict Sharia law. The country remained isolated from much of the world, Pakistan was relatively happy with the situation; yet, oddly enough, the Afghan refugee camps there (which never emptied after the Soviet withdrawal) began filling up with more Afghans seeking to escape the Islamic state at twice the rate as when they fled the godless Soviet infidels. Tens of thousands of others - namely women, Hazaras, etc. - were massacred. Remember the 2 Buddha statues the Taliban blew apart? Most of us do as it was widely covered by our media. Remember the thousands of Hazara Muslims who lived nearby and who were massacred at the same time? I thought not; the media seemed to neglect that little detail in their coverage.

But the world would have probably been able to live with such a situation for a long time until Osama Bin Laden needed refuge and the Taliban were needing a little extra cash. So he came there in the late 90s but it was not an always harmonious relationship. During one spat Saddam Hussein invited Bin Laden to take refuge in Iraq but Osama and the Taliban worked things out. It made sense as Osama had more leverage and clout in Afghanistan and would always be under the thumb of Saddam should he ever move to Iraq.

Then came 9-11

For us the War on Terror began with the attacks on 9-11 though for Bin Laden it was only the latest in a series of attacks over a decade. The US came in, the Taliban went out as did Osama but unfortunately not in a box or even in chains.

The Good News for US

But the good news is there have been no further terror attacks in the US or against US direct interests outside the war zone. Roughly 75% of al-Qaeda leaders have been captured, killed or isolated. Bin Laden is stuck in a cave somewhere and al-Qaeda is further away than ever from establishing a caliphate under its influence. There are two new democracies in the Muslim world (Afghanistan and Iraq) and democracy has made significant gains in many parts of the Mideast (Kuwait, Qatar, Lebanon, to name a few) though it has a long way to go. Most overlooked is the great success in prompting Libya, one of the greatest terror sponsors in the 80s, to switch sides with its WMD sitting now in Oak Ridge Tennessee. While not completely desirable, the Islamic world is in turmoil and that is strategically much more desirable than a hegemonic jihadist Islamic enemy bent on our destruction. Better to keep them divided than unified against us. At least that gives time for the long process of education and liberty to seed, take root and grow - a long process.

The Good News for the Afghans

The good news for the Afghans is that they have more stability and opportunity than they have had for over two decades. Consider:

Two elections with 50-70% turnout despite the threat of rain - that is, the rain of rockets (liquid rain keeps our own turnout to less than half of theirs).

68 of 188 seats in parliament occupied by women.

The refugees are returning, at least 5 million to date - people go where hope is.

Annual GDP regularly increases by over 10% with incomes doubling since 2001.

There are at least 14 new banks (a sign of economic liberty) and 32 radios stations (a sign of political liberty).

There are 9500+ schools (real ones, not just madrassas teaching memorized hate) with over 5 million students - 40% of them female.

Kabul University opened not long after the fall of the Taliban and the American University of Afghanistan opened in 2006.

Reconstruction along the main road arteries of the country has decreased travel time by at least 50%.

80% of the population has access to health care.

See more good news at http://www.defenselink.mil/home/dodupdate/For-the-record/documents/20061006.html

To be sure the country is still a troubled land with a long way to go. But is it still better off six years since the Americans came? Without question, yes.

The Threat Today

The enemy still fights from internal sanctuaries in the mountains and especially from sanctuaries across the border in Pakistan even to include the large city of Quetta. There are an estimated 10,000 Taliban still fighting with the bulk of their efforts in the southern provinces. There are perhaps 2,000 - 3,000 hardcore fighters including al-Qaeda and 100-300 foreigners fighting mostly in the East. And that wayward warlord Gulbadin Hekmatyer still causes trouble mostly in the northeast and around the Kabul area. Violence is up with a surge in suicide bombings. Yet 60% of the country experiences peace.

The enemy is tenacious, the focus on Iraq especially over the last year has aided them, and the safe havens of Pakistan will always give them a place to reconsolidate - especially since the Pakistani government is less than serious about eradicating the Taliban and al-Qaeda. The historic restraint with which NATO and the US fight also ensures the war will take longer than it otherwise might.

Our Efforts There Today

Today NATO commands the fight under the auspices of the UN-mandate International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) with about 40,000 troops from roughly 40 countries. There are 15,000 US troops under NATO command with another 8,000 or so conducting counter terrorism missions apart from ISAF. The Afghan National Army (ANA) has progressed to around 50,000 troops with many units now capable of conducing the lead role in combat operations and President Karzai is seeking to grow the ANA beyond the original plan of 70,000 troops. The US has embedded training teams developing the ANA and there are Provincial Reconstruction Teams (PRTs - a mix of military and humanitarian aid) in most provinces. The Brits, Canadians and Dutch do most of the fighting in the south with the Americans focused on the east. Other nations concentrate on the relatively more stable north and west.

A continuing concern is the poppy fields. There has been enormous crops over the last few years with a bumper crop expected for 2008. Indeed, we could use the droughts which hampered poppy cultivation during the time of the Taliban. Poppy is a two-edged sword in Afghanistan. While it funds upward of 40% of the Taliban’s income it also is a black market backbone to the Afghan economy. Eradicate poppy and eradicate much of our support there. General Dan McNeil, commander of NATO forces in Afghanistan, has promised increased efforts against the poppy trade. And that’s just it - the efforts are focused on the trade and not the growth. So results will be limited. The fastest way to solve the poppy problem is to eradicate it by chemically spraying the fields. But, again, our support will be gone. The long term way to get rid of the problem is to see decreased demand in the West and Far East for heroin (as funny a likelihood as it sounds). So the reality is to do what General McNeil is doing - gradually chip at the problem while we gradually build an economic replacement….and pray that global warming hits Afghanistan causing droughts which force a weaning from poppy to other economic options.

Looking Ahead

The UN mandate for ISAF was renewed in fall of 2007 and ISAF is settling in to its role of operating throughout the country (ISAF originally only operated in Kabul and has gradually assumed military operational control since Fall 2003 of other parts of the country). We had hoped for a more aggressive posture from a Benazir Bhutto influenced Pakistani government but that is not going to happen and we should expect little more than we have gotten from Musharraf to date. Yet while we continue to make gradual progress in Afghanistan we have entered a phase where what happens in Pakistan may be more important that what happens inside Afghanistan. - 1) little change in Pakistan, then gradual change in Afghanistan, or 2) chaos in Pakistan, then increased violence in Afghanistan, or 3) serious efforts to attack the enemy in Pakistan, then an increased momentum in progress in Afghanistan. Should Pakistan actually fall to jihadist leaders - not likely though a concern given the present circumstances in Pakistan - then the whole situation will be rewritten.

To drive the current effort the Bush Administration is conducting a top down review of strategy in both the Departments of Defense and State. NATO is also conducting a similar review. Concerns are how to ensure effective integration of military, political, and economic efforts. Results of the reviews are due in the spring. Part of these reviews will be consideration of a special international coordinator under the auspices of the UN to drive the efforts in Afghanistan. President Bush is leaning toward this, President Karzai is adamantly against it - so far.

The Marines have offered to assume responsibility for all military ops in Afghanistan while leaving Iraq to the Army. But while that makes some sense for a needed aggressive surge in parts of Afghanistan (the Marines are lighter infantry and obviously well suited for aggressive ops), the theater still needs much of what the Army is best at and has deeper pockets to provide (intelligence, logistics, stability and support operations, PRTs, special ops and embedded training teams). There has been a significant Marine presence in Afghanistan in the past and that could still happen without the Marines withdrawing completely from Iraq. Indeed, Secretary of Defense Gates is considering a military surge of troops in Afghanistan similar to that in Iraq but he has made it clear the Marines will not be solely in charge. It does make sense that the Marines should be sent to Afghanistan rather than return to and remain at their home bases as the Iraq surge draws down.

Karzai has made his umpteenth offer of an olive branch to the Taliban except for about 100 or so of their key leaders. Many members of the Taliban have for the umpteenth time flirted with it. Their current demands to enter peace talks with Karzai are 1) Taliban control of 10 provinces in the south, 2) release of all Taliban prisoners, and 3) a timeline for withdrawal of all coalition forces - ie ISAF. Movement is likely to be slow here.

Final Questions

So, is the US better off having gone to Afghanistan? Yes.

Is Afghanistan better off today than it was on September 11, 2001? Yes.

Will we and the Afghans continue to be better off if we remain? Yes.

Is this going to continue to be a long process of gradual improvement with temporary stalls and setbacks? Most likely.

So we will see what 2008 brings. The most dangerous development would be the fall of Pakistan into jihadist hands which changes the dynamics in Afghanistan with intensified violence. The most likely development we can expect is continued gradual progress and a long road ahead. For the optimistic, hope for a surge of momentum similar to what has occurred in Iraq but still with a long road ahead.