Blunderov
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The Kosovo Crisis
« on: 2007-12-20 15:23:05 » |
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[Blunderov] Seemingly the world is spiraling into more and more conflict. Some us remarked before the invasion that Pandora's box would be opened if Iraq were attacked. Turns out this is even more true than we could know. The war meme is burning through the world like a forest fire in a high wind
"Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing
Nothing you can measure anymore
The blizzard, the blizzard of the world
has crossed the threshold
and it has overturned
the order of the soul"
~Leonard Cohen - The Future
stratfor.com
Russia: Kosovo and the Asymmetry of Perceptions
By George Friedman
Kosovo appears to be an archaic topic. The Yugoslavian question was a 1990s issue, while the Kosovo issue has appeared to be one of those conflicts that never quite goes away but isn't regarded very seriously by the international community. You hear about it but you don't care about it. However, Kosovo is getting very serious again.
The United States and Europe appear committed to making Kosovo, now a province of Serbia, an independent state. Of course, Serbia opposes this, but more important, so does Russia. Russia opposed the original conflict, but at that point it was weak and its wishes were irrelevant. Russia opposes independence for Kosovo now, and it is far from the weak state it was in 1999 -- and is not likely to take this quietly. Kosovo's potential as a flash point between Russia and the West makes it important again. Let's therefore review the action to this point.
In 1999, NATO, led by the United States, conducted a 60-day bombing campaign against Yugoslavia and its main component, Serbia. The issue was the charge that Yugoslavia was sponsoring the mass murder of ethnic Albanians in Kosovo, just as it had against Bosnian Muslims. The campaign aimed to force the Yugoslav army out of Kosovo while allowing a NATO force to occupy and administer the province.
Two strands led to this action. The first was the fear that the demonstrable atrocities committed by Serbs in Bosnia were being repeated in Kosovo. The second was the general feeling dominant in the 1990s that the international community's primary task was dealing with rogue states behaving in ways that violated international norms. In other words, it was assumed that there was a general international consensus on how the world should look, that the United States was the leader of this international consensus and that there was no power that could threaten the United States or the unity of the vision. There were only weak, isolated rogue states that had to be dealt with. There was no real risk attached to these operations. Yugoslavia was identified as one of those rogue states. The United States, without the United Nations but with the backing of most European countries, dealt with it.
There was no question that Serbs committed massive atrocities in Bosnia, and that Bosnians and Croats carried out massive atrocities against Serbs. These atrocities occurred in the context of Yugoslavia's explosion after the end of the Cold War. Yugoslavia had been part of an arc running from the Danube to the Hindu Kush, frozen into place by the Cold War. Muslims had been divided by the line, with some living in the former Soviet Union but most on the other side. The Yugoslav state consisted of Catholics, Orthodox Christians and Muslims; it was communist but anti-Soviet and cooperated with the United States. It was an artificial state imposed on multiple nationalities by the victors of World War I and held in place after World War II by the force field created by U.S.-Soviet power. When the Soviets fell, the force field collapsed and Yugoslavia detonated, followed later by the rest of the arc.
The NATO mission, then, was to stabilize the western end of this arc, Yugoslavia. The strategy was to abolish the multinational state created after World War I and replace it with a series of nation-states -- such as Slovenia and Macedonia -- built around a coherent national unit. This would stabilize Yugoslavia. The problem with this plan was that each nation-state would contain substantial ethnic minorities, regardless of attempts to redraw the borders. Thus, Bosnia contains Serbs. But the theory was that small states overwhelmingly consisting of one nationality could remain stable in the face of ethnic diversity so long as there was a dominant nation -- unlike Yugoslavia, where there was no central national grouping.
So NATO decided to re-engineer the Balkans much as they were re-engineered after World War I. NATO and the United States got caught in a weird intellectual trap. On the one hand, there was an absolute consensus that the post-World War II borders of Europe were sacrosanct. If that wasn't the case, then Hungarians living in Romanian Transylvania might want to rejoin Hungary, Turkish regions of Cyprus might want to join Turkey, Germany might want to reclaim Silesia and Northern Ireland might want to secede from the United Kingdom. All hell could break loose, and one of the ways Europe avoided hell after 1945 was a cardinal rule: No borders would shift.
The re-engineering of Yugoslavia was not seen as changing borders. Rather, it was seen as eliminating a completely artificial state and freeing genuine nations to have their own states. But it was assumed that the historic borders of those states could not be changed merely because of the presence of other ethnic groups concentrated in a region. So the desire of Bosnian Serbs to join Serbia was rejected, both because of the atrocious behavior of the Bosnian Serbs and because it would have shifted the historic borders of Bosnia. If all of this seems a bit tortured, please recall the hubris of the West in the 1990s. Anything was possible, including re-engineering the land of the south Slavs, as Yugoslavia's name translates in English.
In all of this, Serbia was seen as the problem. Rather than viewing Yugoslavia as a general failed project, Serbia was seen not so much as part of the failure but as an intrinsically egregious actor that had to be treated differently than the rest, given its behavior, particularly against the Bosnians. When it appeared that the Serbs were repeating their actions in Bosnia against Albanian Muslims in 1999, the United States and other NATO allies felt they had to intervene.
In fact, the level of atrocities in Kosovo never approached what happened in Bosnia, nor what the Clinton administration said was going on before and during the war. At one point, it was said that hundreds of thousands of men were missing, and later that 10,000 had been killed and bodies were being dissolved in acid. The post-war analysis never revealed any atrocities on this order of magnitude. But that was not the point. The point was that the United States had shifted to a post-Cold War attitude, and that since there were no real threats against the United States, the primary mission of foreign policy was dealing with minor rogue states, preventing genocide and re-engineering unstable regions. People have sought explanations for the Kosovo war in vast and complex conspiracies. The fact is that the motivation was a complex web of domestic political concerns and a genuine belief that the primary mission was to improve the world.
The United States dealt with its concerns over Kosovo by conducting a 60-day bombing campaign designed to force Yugoslavia to withdraw from Kosovo and allow NATO forces in. The Yugoslav government, effectively the same as the Serbian government by then, showed remarkable resilience, and the air campaign was not nearly as effective as the air forces had hoped. The United States needed a war-ending strategy. This is where the Russians came in.
Russia was weak and ineffective, but it was Serbia's only major ally. The United States prevailed on the Russians to initiate diplomatic contacts and persuade the Serbs that their position was isolated and hopeless. The carrot was that the United State agreed that Russian peacekeeping troops would participate in Kosovo. This was crucial for the Serbians, as it seemed to guarantee the interests of Serbia in Kosovo, as well as the rights of Serbs living in Kosovo. The deal brokered by the Russians called for a withdrawal of the Serbian army from Kosovo and entry into Kosovo of a joint NATO-Russian force, with the Russians guaranteeing that Kosovo would remain part of Serbia.
This ended the war, but the Russians were never permitted -- let alone encouraged -- to take their role in Serbia. The Russians were excluded from the Kosovo Force (KFOR) decision-making process and were isolated from NATO's main force. When Russian troops took control of the airport in Pristina in Kosovo at the end of the war, they were surrounded by NATO troops.
In effect, NATO and the United States reneged on their agreement with Russia. Russian President Boris Yeltsin and the Russian Foreign Ministry caved in the face of this reneging, leaving the Russian military -- which had ordered the Kosovo intervention -- hanging. In 1999, this was a fairly risk-free move by the West. The Russians were in no position to act.
The degree to which Yeltsin's humiliation in Kosovo led to the rise of Vladimir Putin is not fully understood. Putin represented a faction in the intelligence-military community that regarded Kosovo as the last straw. There were, of course, other important factors leading to the rise of Putin, but the Russian perception that the United States had double-crossed them in an act of supreme contempt was a significant factor. Putin came to office committed to regaining Russian intellectual influence after Yeltsin's inertia.
The current decision by the United States and some European countries to grant independence to Kosovo must be viewed in this context. First, it is the only case in Yugoslavia in which borders are to shift because of the presence of a minority. Second, it continues the policy of re-engineering Yugoslavia. Third, it proceeds without either a U.N. or NATO mandate, as an action supported by independent nations -- including the United States and Germany. Finally, it flies in the face of Russian wishes.
This last one is the critical point. The Russians clearly are concerned that this would open the door for the further redrawing of borders, paving the way for Chechen independence movements, for example. But that isn't the real issue. The real issue is that Serbia is an ally of Russia, and the Russians do not want Kosovar independence to happen. From Putin's point of view, he came to power because the West simply wouldn't take Russian wishes seriously. If there were a repeat of that display of indifference, his own authority would be seriously weakened.
Putin is rebuilding the Russian sphere of influence in the former Soviet Union. He is meeting with the Belarusians over reintegration. He is warning Ukraine not to flirt with NATO membership. He is reasserting Russian power in the Caucasus and Central Asia. His theme is simple: Russia is near and strong; NATO is far away and weak. He is trying to define Russian power in the region. Though Kosovo is admittedly peripheral to this region, if no European power is willing to openly challenge Russian troops in Kosovo, then Russia will have succeeded in portraying NATO as a weak and unreliable force.
If the United States and some European powers can create an independent Kosovo without regard to Russian wishes, Putin's prestige in Russia and the psychological foundations of his grand strategy will suffer a huge blow. If Kosovo is granted independence outside the context of the United Nations, where Russia has veto power, he will be facing the same crisis Yeltsin did. If he repeats Yeltsin's capitulation, he will face substantial consequences. Putin and the Russians repeatedly have warned that they wouldn't accept independence for Kosovo, and that such an act would lead to an uncontrollable crisis. Thus far, the Western powers involved appear to have dismissed this. In our view, they shouldn't. It is not so much what Putin wants as the consequences for Putin if he does not act. He cannot afford to acquiesce. He will create a crisis.
Putin has two levers. One is economic. The natural gas flowing to Europe, particularly to Germany, is critical for the Europeans. Putin has a large war chest saved from high energy prices. He can live without exports longer than the Germans can live without imports. It is assumed that he wouldn't carry out this cutoff. This assumption does not take into account how important the Kosovo issue is to the Russians.
The second option is what we might call the "light military" option. Assume that Putin would send a battalion or two of troops by air to Belgrade, load them onto trucks and send them toward Pristina, claiming this as Russia's right under agreements made in 1999. Assume a squadron of Russian aircraft would be sent to Belgrade as well. A Russian naval squadron, including the aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov, already is headed to the Mediterranean. Obviously, this is not a force that could impose anything on NATO. But would the Germans, for example, be prepared to open fire on these troops?
If that happened, there are other areas of interest to Russia and the West where Russia could exert decisive military power, such as the Baltic states. If Russian troops were to enter the Baltics, would NATO rush reinforcements there to fight them? The Russian light military threat in Kosovo is that any action there could lead to a Russian reaction elsewhere.
The re-engineering of the Balkans always has assumed that there is no broader geopolitical price involved. Granting Kosovo independence would put Russia in a position in which interests that it regards as fundamental are challenged. Even if the West doesn't see why this should be the case, the Russians have made clear that it is so -- and have made statements essentially locking themselves into a response or forcing themselves to accept humiliation. Re-engineering a region where there is no risk is one thing; re-engineering a region where there is substantial risk is another.
In our view, the Russians would actually welcome a crisis. Putin wants to demonstrate that Russia is a great power. That would influence thinking throughout the former Soviet Union, sobering eastern Central Europe as well -- and Poland in particular. Confronting the West as an equal and backing it into a corner is exactly what he would like. In our view, Putin will seize the Kosovo issue not because it is of value in and of itself but because it gives him a platform to move his strategic policy forward.
The Germans have neither the resources nor the appetite for such a crisis. The Americans, bogged down in the Islamic world, are hardly in a position to deal with a crisis over Kosovo. The Russian view is that the West has not reviewed its policies in the Balkans since 1999 and has not grasped that the geopolitics of the situation have changed. Nor, in our view, has Washington or Berlin grasped that a confrontation is exactly what the Russians are looking for.
We expect the West to postpone independence again, and to keep postponing it. But the Albanians might force the issue by declaring unilateral independence. The Russians would actually be delighted to see this. But here is the basic fact: For the United States and its allies, Kosovo is a side issue of no great importance. For the Russians, it is both a hot-button issue and a strategic opportunity. The Russians won't roll over this time. And the asymmetry of perceptions is what crises are made of.
http://www.opednews.com/articles/opedne_timothy__071220_kosovo_could_spark_a.htm
Kosovo Could Spark a US-Russian Military Confrontation
by Timothy V. Gatto Page 1 of 1 page(s)
http://www.opednews.com
There are so many things to write about, so many things that the mainstream media refuses to cover, that I find myself wondering daily about what to write about. Something that I read from an e-mail I received from Stratfor has me wondering why I haven’t seen anything about the situation in Kosovo. The situation in Kosovo, where there is a clamoring for independence, coming mostly from the ethnic Albanians living there and Albania itself could be a flashpoint for a crisis between NATO and Russia.
The country of Serbia dies not want to see Kosovo gain its independence. This situation in the Balkans was the flashpoints for World War I. Serbia and Russia have long-standing ties to one another that have been there for the entire period of the twentieth century. When the Clinton administration decided to intervene in Kosovo in 1999, this was orchestrated by the Supreme NATO Commander Wesley Clark. He went behind Clinton’s back at the time and committed U.S. Troops to an intervention in Kosovo and a bombing campaign against Yugoslavia without President Clinton’s knowledge or authorization. I know that because I heard General Clark say it himself in person in Florida.
Once we had agreed to support a NATO campaign, we were locked into a conflict. The “spin” at the time was that the Serbians in Kosovo were committing “ethnic cleansing”, the REAL truth was that all sides were committing atrocities against each other. Russia objected to a NATO led force to deal in the situation in Kosovo and we agreed to let the Russians be a part of a NATO peacekeeping force. The Russians, in a weakened state and under the leadership of Boris Yeltsin, agreed. It was politically expedient for Yeltsen to agree on a joint NATO/Russian peacekeeping force to appease the majority of Russian citizens that supported Serbia, as they have done for over a century.
The sore point between NATO and Russia came after the 60 day bombing of Belgrade and other points in the former state of Yugoslavia. When the Russians landed two battalions of soldiers into the airport to engage in the peace-keeping agreement, the NATO forces, knowing that Russia was economically and militarily weak at the time, surrounded the airport and put the Russians under a type of siege. The Russian forces had no choice but to load back up and head back to Russia.
The situation in Russia is now far different. Under Putin and with the help of the Russians expansive natural gas reserves that they have been exporting to Western Europe, particularly Germany, they have staged an economic and military comeback. No longer is Russia economically and militarily weak, far from it, Russia has been flexing its military muscle of late. They have dispatched an Aircraft Carrier with its supporting fleet to the Mediterranean and have cautioned NATO not to give Kosovo independence.
According to Stratfor, the Russian Federation is trying to put pressure on the Balkan States as well as the Eastern European nations to distance themselves from NATO. They are in negotiations with Belarus who seem eager to come back into the Russian sphere. They are particularly putting pressure on Poland and the Czech Republic not to allow US Missile bases is these countries. The Soviets see the situation in Kosovo as a way to show the world that they are again a force to be reckoned with in the world. Stratfor predicts that Russia could launch a light military operation to keep Kosovo from gaining independence.
Putin, who rose to power partly because of the disillusionment due to the 1999 embarrassment of having to pull out of the NATO peacekeeping force (KFOR), staked his reputation on the premise that it would never happen again. Now, with The Russian Federation much stronger than it was in 1999, and the U.S. in a weakened position with the onus of fighting a war in Iraq and another in Afghanistan, is in no way able to put up deterrence to Russian military moves. The situation in Kosovo is certainly more egregious because of Putins’s stance that the Russian Federation would never suffer the embarrassment that it had in 1999.
In my opinion, Bush and Cheney do not have their eye on the ball in Kosovo. Bush, on a trip earlier this year was greeted as a hero in Albania that is pushing for an independent Kosovo which they call Kosova. So far the Bush Administration seems to be only concerned with the Middle East and Afghanistan. The Russians seemingly welcome a military confrontation in the Balkans to prove to the Russian people and those nations in the Balkans and in Eastern Europe that Russia is once again a world power and that they are closer to Russia than to the NATO Forces that may or may not come to their aid in the event of future hostilities. This would also ingratiate Putin in the eyes of his citizens where many yearn for a Russian return to a central place on the world stage. Not only would it be in Putin’s interest to spark a confrontation with the West, due to a weak U.S and Germany afraid to engage due to the possible cut-off of natural gas from Russia, if he didn’t oppose independence, he would be seen by many Russians as one who has backed off on an earlier stance that helped his rise to power.
The situation in Kosovo has been referred to the United Nations Security Council, where Russia holds veto power. If the U.S. doesn’t abide by the wishes of the UN, we could see a military confrontation in the Balkans with Russia. Hopefully the Security Council will put off independence for Kosovo, and the United States which only has a passing interest in the region, will stay out of the situation. It is not in the security interests of the US to intervene in an area that does not cause any damage to our national interests.
That’s the way I see it.
http://liberalpro.blogspot.com
Former Chairman of the Liberal Party of America, Tim is a retired Army Sergeant. He currently lives in South Carolina. A regular contributor to OpEdNews, he is the author of Kimchee Kronicles and is currently at work on a new novel.
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