Quick & Dirty Guide to Wars In The World
http://www.strategypage.com/qnd/wars/articles/20070101.aspx

You'd never know it from the headlines, but, overall, things quieted down in the past year. Fighting has died down considerably, or disappeared completely, in places like Nepal, Chechnya. Congo, Indonesia and Burundi. This continues a trend that began when the Cold War ended, and the Soviet Union no longer subsidized terrorist and rebel groups everywhere.

The War on Terror has become the War Against Islamic Radicalism. This movement has always been around, for Islam was born as an aggressive movement, that used violence and terror to expand. Past periods of conquest are regarded fondly by Moslems, and still called upon to inspire the faithful. The current enthusiasm for violence in the name of God has been building for over half a century. Historically, periods of Islamic radicalism flared up periodically in response to corrupt governments, as a vain attempt to impose a religious solution on some social or political problem. The current violence is international because of the availability of planet wide mass media (which needed a constant supply of headlines), and the fact that the Islamic world is awash in tyranny and economic backwardness. Islamic radicalism itself is incapable of mustering much military power, and the movement largely relies on terrorism to gain attention. Most of the victims are fellow Moslems, which is why the radicals eventually become so unpopular among their own people that they run out of new recruits and fade away. This is what is happening now. The American invasion of Iraq was a clever exploitation of this, forcing the Islamic radicals to fight in Iraq, where they killed many Moslems, especially women and children, thus causing the Islamic radicals to lose their popularity among Moslems.

Normally, the West does not get involved in these Islamic religious wars, unless attacked in a major way. Fighting back is considered, by Moslems, as culturally insensitive, and some of the Western media have picked up on this bizarre interpretation of reality. Historians like to point out, for example, that the medieval Crusades were a series of wars fought in response to Islamic campaigns against Christians, not the opening act of aggression that started everything. Thus, the current war on terror is, indeed, in the tradition of the Crusades. And there are many other "Crusades" brewing around the world, in the many places where aggressive Islamic militants are making unprovoked war on their Christian neighbors. Political Correctness among academics and journalists causes pundits to try and turn this reality inside out. But a close look at the violence in Africa, Asia and the Middle East shows a definite pattern of Islamic radicals persecuting those who do not agree with them, not the other way around.

While Islamic terrorism grabs most of the headlines, it is not the cause of many casualties, at least not compared to more traditional wars. The vast majority of the military related violence and deaths in the world comes from dozens of little wars. Actually some of them are not so little. While causalities from terrorism are relatively few (usually 5,000-10,000 dead a year worldwide), the dead and wounded from all the other wars are much more numerous (more than twenty times as much as terrorism).

Current wars are listed in alphabetical orders. Text underneath briefly describes current status. Click on country name for more details.

AFGHANISTAN

Taliban are fighting back more vigorously, but without much success. A sharp increase in Taliban activity in 2006 brought forth a sharp response from government and NATO forces. Independent minded tribes, warlords and drug gangs remain a greater threat to peace, prosperity and true national unity, than the Taliban (which is based across the border in Pakistan).

ALGERIA

A few hundred Islamic rebels fading away, but a general uprising a threat because of dissatisfaction with the old revolutionaries that refuse to honor election results or share power.

ANGOLA

Main rebel group (UNITA) defeated, but some smaller ones have appeared to fight over oil wealth. This war is basically over.

BALKANS

The Greater Albania Movement is driven by part time Albanian nationalists, full time gangsters. Kosovo separatists and a growing number of Islamic radicals. Bosnia continues to attract Islamic terrorists.

CENTRAL ASIA

Dictators brew rebellion by suppressing democrats and Islamic radicals. But not much violence, just a lot of potential.

CHAD

Rebel movements grew and united, aided by government backed Arab militias from Sudan. There was a three month mini-war with Sudan in mid-2006. More unrest is caused by refugees from tribal battles in Sudan.

CHINA

The confrontation with Taiwan continues, as do hostilities with neighbors, separatists, dissenters and ancient enemies. China speeds up modernization of its armed forces, but in ways Westerners have a difficult time understanding (China is developing major Cyber War capabilities, and using them now.).

COLOMBIA

After over three decades, leftist rebels losing support, recruits and territory. Leftist demagogue in Venezuela threatens to support rebels, but has not done much yet. The drug gangs and rebels have merged in many parts of the country, and war in increasingly about money, not ideology.

CONGO

Multiple tribal and political militias, plus an increasing number of bandits, continue to roam the countryside. Peacekeepers and army action have reduced the size of these violent groups, but not eliminated them. However, there are fewer places that the bad guys can roam freely.

ETHIOPIA

Border dispute with Eritrea festers, and invasion of Somalia threatens to get out of hand. Internally, rebellious Moslem groups are a constant threat.

HAITI

Peacekeepers keep a lid on two century old violence between the rich and the poor, and the criminal and political gangs.

INDIA-PAKISTAN

Kashmir is but one of many rebellions that beset the region. India also has tribal and Islamic rebel in the northeast, and Maoist (communist) ones in between. Pakistan has Islamic radicals in the north, and rebellious Pushtun and Baluchi tribes along the Afghan border. India and Pakistan have nukes, making escalation a potential catastrophe. As a result, recent peace talks have lowered the possibility of war, but both sides continue an arms race. Pakistani Islamic radical groups continue to support terrorism in India and Afghanistan, although with less support from the Pakistani government.

INDONESIA

Separatism, pirates, Islamic terrorists and government corruption create a volatile situation that is slowly calming down. Aceh, however, is becoming a stronghold for Islamic conservatives. Newly independent East Timor has been unable to govern itself.

IRAN

Minority of Islamic conservatives have veto power over the majority of reformers. The supply of peaceful solutions is drying up. After that comes another revolution. Half the population consists of ethnic minorities (mainly Turks and Arabs), and these groups are getting more restive and violent. Meanwhile, the Islamic conservatives are determined to build nuclear weapons, rather than improving the economy and raising living standards. Unrest and terrorist violence becoming more common.

IRAQ

Sunni Arab minority tries to make peace with the majority Kurds and Shia Arabs. But Sunni Arab Islamic radicals still back terrorism attacks against government and Shia Arabs (who are considered heretics). Many Sunni Arabs are fleeing the country, and this appears to be how the war will end, with nearly all the Sunni Arabs dead or expelled. That sort of thing is an ancient practice in this part of the world. U.S. backing out of the picture, with U.S. casualties down four percent compared to last year.

ISRAEL

Jewish and Palestinian radicals continue to confront peacemakers. The Palestinian people got tired of terrorism, even though they still support it, and are trying to work out a peace deal with Israel. Palestinian economy has collapsed as foreign charity dried up because the people elected Hamas (Islamic terrorists) party to power. Iran backed Islamic radicals in Lebanon have dragged Lebanon into a war with Israel, that left Lebanon a mess. Meanwhile, Israeli economy booms as Israel carries out its plan to wall itself off from the Palestinians (who don't seem to be able to do anything right).

IVORY COAST

The north and the south fight over money, religion and power. This war is stalemated, courtesy of peacekeepers set up between the factions.

KOREA

After half a century, North Korea continues to destroy its economy, in order to maintain armed forces capable of invading South Korea. A nuclear weapons test changed nothing, although continued famine in the north has prompted China to send more and more troops to the border. North Korean military declines in power, as lack of money for maintenance or training cause continuing rot.

KURDISH WAR

Kurds continue 5,000 year struggle to form their own country. But Iran cracks down on its Kurds, while Turkey threatens to move more troops into northern Iraq.

LIBERIA

Chaos, collapse and tired of fighting. There is peace, but no prosperity.

MEXICO

The passing of one-party rule, the growth of drug gangs, and increasing corruption in the security forces, has triggered growing violence and unrest.

MICRONESIA

Several "failed states" (countries with populations that cannot govern themselves) are found here. Fiji has another coup, Tonga suffers major riots by democrats.

NEPAL

Radical communist rebels still struggle to overthrow a popular monarchy, but now do it in an alliance with political parties. This has stopped nearly all the violence, and greatly reduced the powers of the monarchy.

NIGERIA

Too many tribes, too much oil money and too much corruption creates growing violence. The tribes in the oil producing region (the Niger Delta) are getting organized, and a lot more violent. The northern Moslems want more control over the federal government (and the oil money).

POTENTIAL HOT SPOTS

Various places where the local situation is warming up and might turn into a war.

PHILIPPINES

Islamic minority in the south wants it's own country, and expulsion of non-Moslems. Communist rebels in the north fight for social justice and a dictatorship. Both of these movements are losing and the Moslems are negotiating a peace deal. The communists are taking a beating.

RUSSIA

Rebuilding and reforming the Soviet era armed forces continues. The war against gangsters and Islamic radicals in Chechnya has been won, but the Islamic radicals continue to operate in other parts of the Caucasus.

RWANDA & BURUNDI

War between better organized and more aggressive Tutsis and more numerous Hutu tribes. It's been going on for centuries, but the latest installment has finally ended, with the last Hutu group in Burundi giving up.

SOMALIA

A failed state. It was never a country, but a collection of clans and tribes that fight each other constantly over land and other economic issues. The new "transitional" government, was nearly wiped out by an " Islamic Courts" movement (which attempted to put the entire country under the rule of Islamic clergy and Islamic law). When Islamic Courts threatened to expand into Ethiopia, Ethiopia invaded and wiped out the Islamic Courts. The country remains an economic and political mess, a black hole on the map.

SRI LANKA

Tamil minority (19th century economic migrants from southern India) battles to partition the island. A long ceasefire ends and fighting has resumed. Tamils (the LTTE) are losing this time.

SUDAN

Moslems in the north try to suppress separatist tendencies among Christians in the south and Moslem rebels in the east and west. All this iscomplicated by oil fields in the south, and Moslem government attempts to drive Christians from oil region. Battles over land in the west pit Arab herders against black Sudanese farmers. Both sides are Moslem, but the government is backing the Arabs.

THAILAND

Moslems in the south have a different religion than most Thais, and are different ethnically as well (they are Malays). Islamic radicalism has arrived, along with an armed effort to create a separate Islamic state among the few million people in the area. Islamic terrorists grow more powerful month by month, but are still a minor, but high media profile, problem.

UGANDA

Religion and tribalism combine to create a persistent rebellion in the north, which was aided by Sudan. But now the northern rebels have been worn down, and the unrest is just about done with. Final peace deal with LRA rebels being negotiated.

WAR ON TERROR

International terrorism has created a international backlash and a war unlike any other. The only terrorist victories are in the media. On the ground, the terrorists are losing ground everywhere. Their last refuges are places like Somalia, a few of the Philippine islands, and tribal regions of Pakistan. They are being chased out of Somalia and the Philippines, while Pakistan is under constant pressure to do the same.

The State of the Jihad
A look at the state of the major theaters, and some under the radar, in the Long War
Bill Roggio
http://billroggio.com/archives/2006/12/the_state_of_jihad.php

The year of 2006 has seen some interesting developments in the fight against al-Qaeda and its allies across the globe. While the war against al-Qaeda is largely seen as a fight in Afghanistan supported by a police action in certain countries, there is a very hot war occurring in many countries. Al-Qaeda and its allies have initiated hot wars in lesser known countries such as the Philippines, Chechnya, Somalia, and Algeria. Thailand is fighting a serious insurgency against ill-defined groups of Muslim insurgents which haven't been definitively connected to al-Qaeda or the Southeast Asian powerhouse Jemaah Islamiyah, but we don't believe in coincidences.

Iraq, which is often dissociated from the war, is a major theater for al-Qaeda, as both Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri have stated in numerous communications. Afghanistan has seen its bloodiest year since the U.S. invasion in late 2001. The Taliban and al-Qaeda have fought the Pakistani government to a standstill and have taken over portions of the country. The countries of Saudi Arabia, Indonesia and Bangladesh simmer, and continue to serve as support bases for al-Qaeda's activities.

Below is a roundup of the major developments in the most active theaters across the globe in the Long War.

Pakistan: The Taliban and al-Qaeda have made startling gains in Pakistan during 2006. In the tribal areas along the Afghan border, the Taliban and al-Qaeda have officially taken control over North Waziristan with the signing of the Waziristan Accord in September, and unofficially taken control of South Waziristan after the Pakistani Army abandoned control of the agency. The Taliban has established offices, recruiting centers, a parallel governing administration, and allowed al-Qaeda and other foreign fighters to live in the region. Twenty-two known al-Qaeda training camps exist in the tribal areas. After the Waziristan Accord, Pakistan released over 2,500 Taliban, al-Qaeda and other jihadi prisoners, many of whom fled back to the tribal areas to rejoin or lead their units. The Taliban also maintain a command and control center in Quetta in the south. The Taliban and al-Qaeda recruit, arm, train, sortie and direct their attacks from the tribal area and Quetta.

The Pakistani government is exploring further 'peace accords' in the tribal agencies, and Bajaur would have been the next agency ceded to the Taliban and al-Qaeda had not a missile strike on a madrassa hosting an al-Qaeda training camp sabotaged the talks. The foiled London airliner plot was tracked back to Waziristan, as was the Mumbai, India bombing which killed over 200 railway commuters.

Afghanistan: The Taliban have stepped up military operations and suicide and bombing attacks in Afghanistan. While the Taliban continues to claim their movement is supported locally, the impetus of the Taliban offensive is provided from the Taliban and al-Qaeda support bases in western Pakistan. The overwhelming violence and Taliban activity in Afghanistan occurs on the eastern border with Pakistan. The Taliban have been attacking border outposts, police stations and district centers in formations as large as battalion sized (about 400 fighters).

But massed Taliban have led to massive Taliban casualties at the hands of NATO forces. Over 4,000 have been killed in Afghanistan this year, but at least 3,500 are Taliban fighters. Afghan, Canadian, British and U.S. forces have been heavily engaged in the southern and eastern provinces of Kandahar, Helmand, Kunar, Khost, Paktia and Paktika. An al-Qaeda suicide cell in Kabul was broken up by Afghan police after a two month bombing campaign over the summer. Many military and political leaders predict 2007 will be a violent year in Afghanistan as the Taliban attempts to destabilize the Afghan government and sideline reconstruction projects.

Iraq: Since the destruction of the Golden Dome of the Al-Askaria Mosque in Samarra, the sectarian violence has risen dramatically. After the death of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, command of Al-Qaeda in Iraq was passed to Abu Ayyub al-Masri, a protege of Ayman al-Zawahiri. Al-Qaeda is attempting to create a political front and put an Iraqi face on the insurgency. Under the leadership of of Abu Omar al-Iraqi, al-Qaeda is attempting to unite the fractious insurgent groups in the Sunni areas, and has created an umbrella political organization called the Islamic State of Iraq. Some smaller Sunni insurgent groups, along with some leaders of Iraqi tribes, have been rolled under the banner of the Islamic State of Iraq, along with al-Qaeda in Iraq's Mujahideen Shura Council.

Muqtada al-Sadr and his Iranian backed Mahdi Army continue to lead the sectarian violence in Baghdad and efforts to sideline Sadr from political power have so far failed. An Iraqi government was formed after months of painful negotiations to create a ruling Shia coalition, and power was peacefully transferred. There are real concerns about the willingness of the Iraqi government of Nouri al-Maliki to disarm the Shia militias. The Iraqi Army has made significant progress in taking control of the battlespace, yet is still heavily dependent on US forces. In general, the Iraqi police has a long way to go before approaching the effectiveness of the Army. The Baghdad police are said to be riddled with militias. Saddam Hussein was executed on December 30, 2006.

Somalia: After a year of seemingly wild success in Somalia, al-Qaeda has suffered a serious blow. The al-Qaeda backed Islamic Courts had taken control over all of central and southern Somalia by July, save for the central town of Baidoa, after defeating the U.S. backed Alliance for the Restoration of Peace and Counter-Terrorism. Ethiopian forces poured into Baidoa and Puntland to reinforce the weak Transitional Federal Government. A five month standoff ensued, then in late December the two sides faced off outside Baidoa. The Islamic Courts conducted two suicide strikes against government targets, and successfully ambushed several Ethiopian armored columns. The Ethiopian Army then conducted a major offensive and drove the Islamic Courts from Mogadishu. The Islamic Courts have fled to the southern port of Kismayo and a training camp at Ras Kamboni, and the the Ethiopian Army is currently heading south to engage them. The Islamic Courts have given all signs that it will begin to conduct an insurgency. Al-Qaeda has expended significant resources in funds, manpower, political and propaganda support, and in establishing training bases in Somalia.

Iran: The Islamic Republic of Iran continues to pursue its nuclear program, against the wishes of the United Nations. Iran still shelters over 100 al-Qaeda leaders, including Said bin Laden, Osama's son, and Saif al-Adel, al-Qaeda's strategic planner. Muqtada al-Sadr receives the support of Iran, which is working to destabilize the Iraqi government and fomet civil war. Qods Force agents have been arrested in Iraq with ""weapons lists, documents pertaining to shipments of weapons into Iraq, organizational charts, telephone records and maps, among other sensitive intelligence information... [and] information about importing modern, specially shaped explosive charges into Iraq." Hezbollah continues to be Iran's main terrorist proxy, and received significant aid in the form of sophisticated weapons systems, cash and political support. Iranian weapons were fielded during the Israel-Hezbollah War, including a cruise missile which disabled an Israeli warship, medium range rockets, and UAVs. Iran has also supported Somalia's Islamic Courts by providing arms and training to the organization.

North Africa/Algeria: Al-Qaeda consolidated the various Salafist terrorist groups and formed Al-Qaeda in North Africa. The organization consists of the Algerian based GSPC (Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat), the Moroccan Islamic Combat Group, the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group, and the Tunisian Combatant Group. While the GSPC isn't a serious threat to the stability of Algeria, the group remains active, has maintained its size and operations, and has conducted attacks against government forces and civilian targets. Moroccan authorities disrupted a major terror plot against foreign targets, and arrested almost 60 in the conspiracy. Al-Qaeda in North Africa and the GSPC maintain an extensive support network in Europe and beyond.

Saudi Arabia: Al-Qaeda in Saudi Arabia attacked the ARAMCO run Abqaiq facility, the largest in Saudi Arabia. Saudi security forces continue to dismantle al-Qaeda's network of fighters in the country. Saudi Arabia has killed or captured nearly every terrorist on its most wanted lists. But Saudi Arabia continues to allow the support organizations to function. The "Golden Chain," a group of wealthy Saudis and other Gulf states financiers who funnel millions of dollars to Osama bin Laden, still remain free, despite their known identity. Imams and clerics supportive and sympathetic to al-Qaeda and other terrorist organizations continue to preach hate and justification for jihad.

Chechnya: Al-Qaeda had a very bad year in Chechnya. Shamil Basayev, the leader of the Chechen jihad, along with a large contingent of the Chechen leadership, was killed by the Russian FSB in July. After Basayev's death, large numbers of Chechen rebels defected and accepted a government amnesty. In November, Doku Umarov, Basayev's successor, was wounded after Russian forces conducted an assault on his hideout. Just days later, Abu Hafs, al-Qaeda's Emir of Chechnya, was killed by Russian security services. Russian intelligence believed he was prepared to leave Chechnya... “given the lack of prospects for jihad in the North Caucasus.”

The Philippines: The Filipino Army has made significant progress in its fight against al-Qaeda linked Abu Sayyaf and Indonesian based Jemaah Islamiyah operating in the southern Sulu archipelago. A force of about 6,000 Marines are fighting Abu Sayyaf and Jemaah Islamiyah on Jolo Island, and are highly confident Khaddafy Janjalani, the leader of Abu Sayyaf, was killed during the operation. Jemaah Islamiyah leader Umar Patek was believed to have been wounded, and the wife of JI bomb expert Dulmatin was arrested and deported to Indonesia. Abu Sayyaf and JI have continued to conduct a low-level bombing campaign, largely in Mindanao. The Filipino government continues to conduct negotiations with the Muslim separatist group MILF.

Indonesia: Jemaah Islamiyah still remains active in Indonesia and throughout southeast Asia, although it has not conducted major attacks inside the country. The Indonesian Supreme Court overturned the conviction of Abu Bakar Bashir, the spiritual leader of al-Qaeda affiliate Jemaah Islamiyah who sanctioned the Bali bombings. Over 60 terrorists were released from jail, including several involved in the Bali bombing. Jemaah Islamiyah still maintains a support base and training camps inside Indonesia.

Bangladesh: Bangladesh was successful in decapitating the senior leadership of the Jama'atul Mujahideen Bangladesh during the spring. Abdur Rahman and Bangla Bhai, the two most senior leaders of JMB were captured. Abdur Rahman was an original signatory of al-Qaeda's 1998 fatwa against the West and the establishment of the International Islamic Front. All together, five of the seven members of JMB's Majlis-e-Shura (central council) are now in custody. Bangladesh is still a haven for al-Qaeda and Pakistani based terrorist groups.

Thailand: Thailand's shadowy Muslim insurgency in the south has stepped up its campaign of terror. Teachers and schools have been the primary targets of insurgents, as 110 schools have been burned and 71 school teachers, administrators and school staff have been killed over the past year. On New Years Eve, a bombing campaign in the capital of Bangkok was successful in stopping Thailand's massive New Years Eve celebrations.

15 Rules for Understanding the Middle East
http://www.timesunion.com/AspStories/story.asp?storyID=546377&category=OPINION&newsdate=12/20/2006

For a long time, I let my hopes for a decent outcome in Iraq triumph over what I had learned reporting from Lebanon during its civil war. Those hopes vanished last summer. So, I'd like to offer President Bush my updated rules of Middle East reporting, which also apply to diplomacy, in hopes they'll help him figure out what to do next in Iraq.
Rule 1: What people tell you in private in the Middle East is irrelevant. All that matters is what they will defend in public in their own language. Anything said to you in English, in private, doesn't count. In Washington, officials lie in public and tell the truth off the record. In the Mideast, officials say what they really believe in public and tell you what you want to hear in private.

Rule 2: Any reporter or U.S. Army officer wanting to serve in Iraq should have to take a test, consisting of one question: "Do you think the shortest distance between two points is a straight line?" If you answer yes, you can't go to Iraq. You can serve in Japan, Korea or Germany -- not Iraq.

Rule 3: If you can't explain something to Middle Easterners with a conspiracy theory, then don't try to explain it at all -- they won't believe it.

Rule 4: In the Middle East, never take a concession, except out of the mouth of the person doing the conceding. If I had a dollar for every time someone agreed to recognize Israel on behalf of Yasser Arafat, I could paper my walls.

Rule 5: Never lead your story out of Lebanon, Gaza or Iraq with a cease-fire; it will always be over before the next morning's paper.

Rule 6: In the Middle East, the extremists go all the way, and the moderates tend to just go away.

Rule 7: The most oft-used expression by moderate Arab pols is: "We were just about to stand up to the bad guys when you stupid Americans did that stupid thing. Had you stupid Americans not done that stupid thing, we would have stood up, but now it's too late. It's all your fault for being so stupid."

Rule 8: Civil wars in the Arab world are rarely about ideas -- like liberalism vs. communism. They are about which tribe gets to rule. So, yes, Iraq is having a civil war as we once did. But there is no Abe Lincoln in this war. It's the South vs. the South.

Rule 9: In Middle East tribal politics there is rarely a happy medium. When one side is weak, it will tell you, "I'm weak, how can I compromise?" And when it's strong, it will tell you, "I'm strong, why should I compromise?" Rule 10: Mideast civil wars end in one of three ways: a) like the U.S. civil war, with one side vanquishing the other; b) like the Cyprus civil war, with a hard partition and a wall dividing the parties; or c) like the Lebanon civil war, with a soft partition under an iron fist (Syria) that keeps everyone in line. Saddam used to be the iron fist in Iraq. Now it is us. If we don't want to play that role, Iraq's civil war will end with A or B.

Rule 11: The most underestimated emotion in Arab politics is humiliation. The Israeli-Arab conflict, for instance, is not just about borders. Israel's mere existence is a daily humiliation to Muslims, who can't understand how, if they have the superior religion, Israel can be so powerful. Al Jazeera's editor, Ahmed Sheikh, said it best when he recently told the Swiss weekly Die Weltwoche: "It gnaws at the people in the Middle East that such a small country as Israel, with only about 7 million inhabitants, can defeat the Arab nation with its 350 million. That hurts our collective ego. The Palestinian problem is in the genes of every Arab. The West's problem is that it does not understand this."

Rule 12: Thus, the Israelis will always win, and the Palestinians will always make sure they never enjoy it. Everything else is just commentary.

Rule 13: Our first priority is democracy, but the Arabs' first priority is "justice." The oft-warring Arab tribes are all wounded souls, who really have been hurt by colonial powers, by Jewish settlements on Palestinian land, by Arab kings and dictators, and, most of all, by each other in endless tribal wars. For Iraq's long-abused Shiite majority, democracy is first and foremost a vehicle to get justice. Ditto the Kurds. For the minority Sunnis, democracy in Iraq is a vehicle of injustice. For us, democracy is all about protecting minority rights. For them, democracy is first about consolidating majority rights and getting justice.

Rule 14: The Lebanese historian Kamal Salibi had it right: "Great powers should never get involved in the politics of small tribes."

Rule 15: Whether it is Arab-Israeli peace or democracy in Iraq, you can't want it more than they do.