From: rhinoceros (rhinoceros@freemail.gr)
Date: Wed May 26 2004 - 11:59:09 MDT
[Jonathan Davis]
This is interesting, but as the author points out correlation does not establish cause
[rhinoceros]
Of course it doesn't. Masters talks about a 0.97 correlation between violent crime and leaded gas sales 18-19 years before. He says "parenatal exposure to lead is a plausible hypothesis".
Agreed, a high statistical correlation does not establish a cause. Take, for example, the number of cars. Logically, the number of cars would go together with gas sales and would have the same correlation with violent crime as long you don't pay attention to the use of leaded or unleaded gas (assuming the author's hypothesis is correct). Also, there can be other unrelated real causes which just happen to go together with leaded gas sales.
On the other hand, a high statistical correlation does tell you where to look for causes. This is what we have here, when Masters looked into the physiological effects of toxic metals.
[Jonathan Davis]
also, we need to see evidence that Blacks have higher lead levels, the Flynn effect affects all groups, the score differences are also found in the UK where black immigrants were often housed in the same if not superior housing as whites.
[rhinoceros]
This theory is prof. Masters' pet peeve. I cannot retrieve the full study he posted from the files folder of the Evolutionary Psychology yahoo group -- there must be a technical problem. This one seems to be related:
http://www.crime-times.org/97d/w97dp1.htm
From what I can see in the few lines he posted, his argument is that the same lead exposure (same environment) had different physiological effects on what he calls "Blacks".
[Jonathan Davis]
I am certain the explanation is environmental or cultural, but I think this one is a long shot.
[rhinoceros]
I can see why this hypothesis looks suspect: It does not cohere with the paradigms we usually follow when talking about matters of criminality and race (whatever that means). However, I have yet to see any "bad science" in the hypothesis. This is from the link posted above:
<quote>
Masters et al. stress that "neurotoxicity is only one cause among many, at most functioning as a catalyst which, in addition to poverty, social stress, alcohol or drug abuse, individual character, and other social factors, increases the likelihood that an individual will commit a violent crime." But reducing even this one risk among many is an important goal, they say, "given the extraordinary level of violence that persists in urban America and the failure of traditional policies to meet it."
<end quote>
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