Re: virus: Probabilities (was: What does it mean to be me?)

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> [rhinoceros]
> I toss a coin 100 times. In the 87th toss, I get "heads". What can I
> say in this case? Can I say that the probability that it would be
> heads in the 87th toss is 1?

[Lucifer]
Before the 87th toss the probability would be 0.5 (assuming a fair coin).
After you have seen the results of the 87th toss, the probability would be 1.
The probability quantifies your knowledge about the event. If you toss the
coin, but don't show me the results, then the probability for me would be
0.5 and for you 1.0 (assuming you did look) because that is how we would
bet on the results. Even after I have seen the results, there is a very
slight probability that I misread the coin, so the probability should be
something slightly less that 1 technically.

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