From: rhinoceros (rhinoceros@freemail.gr)
Date: Wed Nov 26 2003 - 11:25:35 MST
[Lucifer]
I would estimate a probability distribution for the balance in the account given whatever information I have available (like how this person is dressed, how they speak, where we are, etc). Then I would find the amount that maximizes the expected return (amount * probability). Finding out the balance after I wrote the check would not change my answer.
[rhinoceros]
This is a good approach if you can really translate these things into a numerical probability distribution. What does the last sentence mean? Wouldn't the exact sum be the best answer if you knew it?
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