From: Richard Ridge (richard_ridge@tao-group.com)
Date: Wed Feb 20 2002 - 05:32:11 MST
As British Telecom (broadband? What's that?) are a firm who wouldn't be able
to predict the need to tie up their own laces on a morning, I think this
needs some cautious consideration. My normal prejudice with this sort of
exercise would be to regard it as wildly optimistic (especially given that
BT's own ineptitude is likely to impede some of these predictions from
proving accurate. I certainly think anything involving Virtual Reality is to
be treated with suspicion). That said, there are a few areas where I think
they've been excessively conservative.
>Computer agent personal shoppers - 2003
Arguably doable already within the context of a firm like Amazon, but
probably will take longer for investment conditions to make this worthwhile.
Why bother when warehouse staff are so cheap?
>Domestic appliances with remote (networked) intelligence - 2003
Do they mean AI? If so, I think that's unlikely in that timescale. Networked
homes are very feasible though - see http://www.havi.org/. The problem is
one of commercial application - it might be nice to have a networked system
that uses your video to record a picture of people prowling outside or to
turn down the stereo automatically when you get a phone call, but it's not
clear whether this is enough. Security will probably drive adoption of
this - I have friends who've already networked cameras into their Linux
machines so that detected motion causes a picture to be emailed to them at
work. Very DIY at the moment, but it gives you a good idea. I also think
that networking will probably drive the 'domestic appliances with
personality and talking head interface' angle,' just to make it all seem a
lot less scary. Think of a 'Connie' home management systems based on a
server hub.
>Security Barbie used for locating lost offspring - 2004
More likely would be to use GPS implants in items like backpacks and
baseball caps (have to be waterproof, obviously). I suppose it could be done
with toys, but probably only for locating the toy itself.
>AI chatbots indistinguishable from people by 95 % of population - 2005
Arguably already feasible, but only due to inability of most humans to pass
the turing test. http://fury.com/aoliza/ (I do heartily recommend this site.
*Especially* Number 42.)
>On line voting in UK 2007
This is being investigated by the government currently. As the current UK
voting system makes corruption and loss of privacy eminently feasible,
nothing is lost by transferring it to the Net (the main safeguard is that
no-one cares who gets elected). Could happen in 2005, depending on how the
current review goes. See:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/in_depth/sci_tech/2000/dot_life/newsid_1746
000/1746902.stm
>National UK decisions influenced by electronic referenda - 2010
Oh squid, no. 'And here is the news. In a response to an electronic
referenda jointly organised by The Sun and The Daily Telegraph, the
government has agreed to introduce hanging for spraypainting graffiti,
incinerate all immigrants, destroy Brussels in a nuclear attack and to bring
back the Iron Maiden to address the social problem caused by homosexuality.'
Mind you, won't that have been genetically engineered out of existence by
then?
>Most towns echoed in cyberspace 2016
Possibly, but my guess is that the medium would be too individualistic for
that to work terribly well. The concept could work for applications like
yellow pages and sending hate e-mail to your local council, but I'm not sure
about beyond that. My guess is that you'll have virtual communities,
arranged by interest rather than by geographical proximity. Could be a
problem for political and social cohesion - in mixed groups, discussions
tend to steer towards a common ground. In these kind of groups, they steer
towards an even more extreme group position.
>Smart clothes that can alter their thermal properties - 2001
I saw this one coming. Watching some piece of inane TV the other day, the
host was wearing smart trousers. The problem was that the trousers changed
coloured in reaction to thermal properties - i.e. it had ghastly orange
blobs around the crotch and armpits. A short lived fad, one would hope.
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